Full Deep-Dive: The Opportunity Zone Scam

How a 2017 “help poor neighborhoods” program became the biggest tax giveaway to luxury real-estate developers in history

What Congress sold to America in 2017 “Take your stock gains, invest in distressed census tracts, hold 10 years → pay zero capital-gains tax on the new profits. This will rebuild forgotten communities.”

What actually happened by 2025

  • 8,764 census tracts were designated as “Opportunity Zones.” Governors picked them. Shockingly, they chose:
    • The Brooklyn waterfront (now Domino Sugar luxury towers)
    • Downtown Miami (Related Group’s 60-story condos)
    • Portland’s Pearl District (already gentrified)
    • The area around Amazon HQ2 in Arlington
    • Beverly Hills-adjacent tracts in L.A.
    • Harbor Point in Baltimore (where Kevin Plank built his HQ)
    • The Las Vegas Strip (yes, really)
  • Total capital raised: ~$70 billion by 2025 (Novogradac data).
  • Percentage that went to actual low-income housing or operating businesses in poor areas: <12%.
  • Percentage that went to luxury condos, student housing near Ivy League schools, high-end hotels, and self-storage: >75%.

The three killer provisions that turned it into a scam

  1. Temporary deferral → permanent exclusion after 10 years (even if you sell).
  2. Step-up in basis to FMV after 10 years → the new appreciation is tax-free forever.
  3. No requirement to actually help poor people — just build anything in the zone and wait.

Real examples

  • Scott’s Miracle-Gro CEO invested Amazon gains into a Cleveland self-storage facility in an OZ → zero tax on $400M profit.
  • A fund bought a luxury apartment tower in Miami’s Arts District → sold in 2024 → investors paid $0 tax on $1.2B gain.
  • Jared Kushner’s family firm raised $500M+ for Jersey City and Miami projects → all in OZs.

The money

  • JCT 2025 estimate of revenue loss from the 10-year exclusion alone: $15–20B per year starting 2027 (when first investments hit 10 years).
  • Total projected cost through 2035: $100B+ (CBO).

Lutnick’s one-sentence fix (stated on All-In, March 2025 and repeated on CNBC, May 2025) “Keep the deferral and the original basis step-up after 7 years — but kill the 10-year 100% exclusion on new gains. Everything after the original investment gets taxed normally when sold. One line of code. Raises $12–15B a year and ends the billionaire condo subsidy overnight.”

Bonus: The compromise he’ll accept If Congress cries too loud, he’ll settle for:

  • Cap the exclusion at 50% of new gains, or
  • Require at least 50% of the project to be affordable housing or operating businesses in tracts with >30% poverty.

But his preference is brutal and simple: “The 10-year zero-gains rule dies. Period.”

Result:

  • Actual poor neighborhoods can still get investment (deferral + 7-year step-up is still generous).
  • Billionaires stop getting tax-free windfalls on Miami penthouses.
  • Treasury gets $12–15B a year starting 2027.

That’s it. One line in the tax code, $150 billion saved over a decade, scam over.

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Author: timothymccandless

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