How a 2017 “help poor neighborhoods” program became the biggest tax giveaway to luxury real-estate developers in history
What Congress sold to America in 2017 “Take your stock gains, invest in distressed census tracts, hold 10 years → pay zero capital-gains tax on the new profits. This will rebuild forgotten communities.”
What actually happened by 2025
- 8,764 census tracts were designated as “Opportunity Zones.” Governors picked them. Shockingly, they chose:
- The Brooklyn waterfront (now Domino Sugar luxury towers)
- Downtown Miami (Related Group’s 60-story condos)
- Portland’s Pearl District (already gentrified)
- The area around Amazon HQ2 in Arlington
- Beverly Hills-adjacent tracts in L.A.
- Harbor Point in Baltimore (where Kevin Plank built his HQ)
- The Las Vegas Strip (yes, really)
- Total capital raised: ~$70 billion by 2025 (Novogradac data).
- Percentage that went to actual low-income housing or operating businesses in poor areas: <12%.
- Percentage that went to luxury condos, student housing near Ivy League schools, high-end hotels, and self-storage: >75%.
The three killer provisions that turned it into a scam
- Temporary deferral → permanent exclusion after 10 years (even if you sell).
- Step-up in basis to FMV after 10 years → the new appreciation is tax-free forever.
- No requirement to actually help poor people — just build anything in the zone and wait.
Real examples
- Scott’s Miracle-Gro CEO invested Amazon gains into a Cleveland self-storage facility in an OZ → zero tax on $400M profit.
- A fund bought a luxury apartment tower in Miami’s Arts District → sold in 2024 → investors paid $0 tax on $1.2B gain.
- Jared Kushner’s family firm raised $500M+ for Jersey City and Miami projects → all in OZs.
The money
- JCT 2025 estimate of revenue loss from the 10-year exclusion alone: $15–20B per year starting 2027 (when first investments hit 10 years).
- Total projected cost through 2035: $100B+ (CBO).
Lutnick’s one-sentence fix (stated on All-In, March 2025 and repeated on CNBC, May 2025) “Keep the deferral and the original basis step-up after 7 years — but kill the 10-year 100% exclusion on new gains. Everything after the original investment gets taxed normally when sold. One line of code. Raises $12–15B a year and ends the billionaire condo subsidy overnight.”
Bonus: The compromise he’ll accept If Congress cries too loud, he’ll settle for:
- Cap the exclusion at 50% of new gains, or
- Require at least 50% of the project to be affordable housing or operating businesses in tracts with >30% poverty.
But his preference is brutal and simple: “The 10-year zero-gains rule dies. Period.”
Result:
- Actual poor neighborhoods can still get investment (deferral + 7-year step-up is still generous).
- Billionaires stop getting tax-free windfalls on Miami penthouses.
- Treasury gets $12–15B a year starting 2027.
That’s it. One line in the tax code, $150 billion saved over a decade, scam over.