Stabilization and One Massive Winner

FORM Up 17%, GLW Bounces, Cruise Lines Reverse

Thursday  delivered exactly what we needed after Thursday’s massacre: stabilization in quality names on lower volume. GLW up 1.09% to $110.89 on 3.32 million shares—bouncing off Thursday’s $108 support on 40% lower volume. LITE up 2.79% to $478.53 on 3.89 million shares, down from Thursday’s panic levels. Even GEV, which got crushed 6.49% Thursday, only gave back another 2.30% Friday on much lighter volume.

But the real story is FormFactor (FORM), which absolutely exploded 16.98% to $83.72 on 1.41 million shares. This caps off an incredible week: Tuesday +8.31%, Wednesday +5.14%, Thursday down with everything else, Friday +17%. In one week, FORM rallied from around $70 to $83.72—nearly 20%. At 121 P/E, something fundamental is happening here. Either test equipment demand is accelerating, there’s M&A speculation, or short sellers are getting obliterated.

Meanwhile, Thursday’s winners (cruise lines) gave back gains. CCL down 2.03%, CUK down 2.21%. When consumer cyclicals weaken and tech stabilizes, it suggests Thursday’s panic was overdone. Let’s break down what Friday means for systematic traders and whether we’re ready to re-enter positions.

GLW: Bouncing Off Support

GLW (Corning) – Up 1.09%

Up 1.09% to $110.89 on 3,324,204 shares. This is exactly what we needed to see. Thursday GLW cratered 3.64% to $108.68 on record 5.55 million shares. Friday it bounced back above $110 on 3.32 million shares—40% lower volume. When volume decreases and price stabilizes after panic selling, it means the selling exhausted itself.

The $108-110 zone is now critical support. GLW tested $108.68 Thursday, held overnight, and bounced Friday. If it holds $108-110 next week on light volume, Thursday was the bottom and we’re ready to start buying again. If it breaks $108 on heavy volume, we’re heading to $100-105 and the AI infrastructure thesis has bigger problems.

At 60 P/E with actual profits and multi-year contracts with hyperscalers, GLW remains the highest-quality AI infrastructure play. But after Thursday’s violence, we need confirmation that support holds before adding new positions. For those who held through Thursday: well done. Your collar strategies cushioned the blow, and Friday’s bounce rewards patience.

LITE: Volatility Continues

LITE (Lumentum) – Up 2.79%

Up 2.79% to $478.53 on 3,893,092 shares. LITE was Thursday’s lone survivor, rallying 4.51% while everything else got destroyed. Friday it continues higher on heavy but decreasing volume (down from Thursday’s 7.29 million to 3.89 million). At 146 P/E, LITE trades at extreme valuations even for optical components.

LITE is now pure momentum. The wild swings (up 4.5% one day, could be down 5% the next) make this a trading vehicle, not a hold-forever systematic income play. If you’re aggressive and can handle volatility, LITE is tradeable with very wide collar strikes (10-15% out). But one headline or one bad market day and you’re down 10%. High risk, high reward.

The Explosion: FORM Up 17%

FORM (FormFactor) – Up 16.98%

Up 16.98% to $83.72 on 1,408,783 shares. This is the star of the week. Let’s trace the entire move: Tuesday FORM rallied 8.31%. Wednesday +5.14%. Thursday it probably pulled back with everything else. Friday +17%. From around $70 to $83.72 in one week—nearly 20% total gain. At 121 P/E, valuation is stretched but clearly something fundamental is happening.

Possible catalysts: (1) Positive earnings or guidance—test equipment demand exceeding expectations. (2) New customer wins—maybe hyperscaler orders accelerating. (3) M&A speculation—someone wants FORM’s semiconductor test technology. (4) Massive short squeeze—heavily shorted stock getting forced covering. The 1.41 million share volume on a +17% day suggests real institutional buying, not retail speculation.

Here’s the challenge: FORM is now massively extended. Chasing a stock up 17% in one day after it already rallied 13% earlier in the week is how retail loses money. But if this is a genuine fundamental catalyst (new guidance, new orders), the stock could consolidate at $80-85 and move higher. The prudent approach: watch next week. If FORM holds $80-82 on light volume, it’s digesting gains and could run to $90-100. If it gaps down Monday on profit-taking, the move is over.

For systematic income traders, FORM is too volatile and too extended for collar strategies right now. The 121 P/E and parabolic price action make this a momentum trade, not an investment. Let it settle for 2-3 weeks, see if it holds $75-80, then consider if you want exposure. Don’t chase.

The Reversals: Cruise Lines Give Back Gains

CCL (Carnival) – Down 2.03%

Down 2.03% to $31.44 on 6,571,278 shares. Thursday cruise lines rallied while tech got destroyed—CCL was up 0.80%. Friday it gave back those gains and then some. The massive 6.57 million share volume on a down day suggests institutions are selling what they bought Thursday. This is classic ‘safe haven’ trade that lasts one day then reverses.

CUK (Carnival plc) – Down 2.21%

Down 2.21% to $31.16 on 1.24 million shares. Same story as CCL—it’s the UK-listed version of the same company. When both cruise names reverse on heavy volume the day after rallying, it confirms Thursday’s rotation into consumer cyclicals was temporary panic, not a real sector shift.

Industrial and Heavy Machinery: Mixed Bag

GEV (GE Vernova) – Down 2.30%

Down 2.30% to $729.08 on 1,343,476 shares. Thursday GEV got crushed 6.49% on 2 million shares. Friday it continues lower but on 33% less volume (1.34M vs 2M). This is still distribution, but the decreasing volume suggests selling is slowing. GEV makes power equipment for data centers, so it’s tied to AI infrastructure. If data center build-outs are getting questioned, GEV suffers. Watch for stabilization around $720-730.

CAT (Caterpillar) – Down 2.44%

Heavy construction machinery down 2.44% to $674.95 on 967K shares. CAT is a $315 billion behemoth, and when it’s down 2.44%, it signals concerns about construction and infrastructure spending. At 36 P/E, CAT isn’t expensive, but if the economy is slowing or construction activity declining, even reasonable valuations get compressed.

ATI – Up 2.08%

Metal fabrication up 2.08% to $130.15 on 769K shares. ATI bouncing after Thursday’s 1.74% drop. At 46 P/E for specialty metals serving aerospace, valuation is reasonable. The 2% bounce on decent volume suggests this found support. Still too niche and thin for systematic strategies.

Semi Equipment: Stabilizing

TER (Teradyne) – Down 0.30%

Semiconductor test equipment barely down 0.30% to $268.25 on 1,587,359 shares. Thursday TER got crushed 4.35% on 3.1 million shares. Friday it’s nearly flat on half the volume. This is exactly what you want to see: violent selling exhausts itself, stock stabilizes on lower volume. At 77 P/E, TER is expensive but profitable. If semi equipment demand is real, TER is a play. But let it consolidate another week before adding.

The Garbage Still Bouncing

ALGM (Allegro) – Up 1.02%

Semiconductor with negative P/E up 1.02% on 495K shares. Still losing money, still bouncing weakly on retail volume. This has been bouncing for a week and remains completely uninvestable. Avoid.

What Friday Tells Us

Friday’s action is cautiously positive. The key indicators: (1) Volume decreased significantly from Thursday’s panic (GLW 3.32M vs 5.55M, GEV 1.34M vs 2M, LITE 3.89M vs 7.29M). (2) Quality names stabilized or bounced (GLW +1.09%, LITE +2.79%). (3) Thursday’s safe haven plays reversed (cruise lines down 2%), suggesting panic rotation was temporary.

This is classic bottoming behavior: massive volume selling on Thursday finds a floor, Friday volume decreases and prices stabilize. The question is whether $108-110 in GLW, $720-730 in GEV, and $268-270 in TER are the actual support levels that hold, or just temporary pauses before more selling.

Next week’s action will tell us. If Monday opens flat to slightly higher on light volume and we trade sideways, the bottom is in. If Monday gaps down or sells off on increasing volume, Thursday’s carnage was just the beginning of a larger correction. For now, we’re in wait-and-see mode.

Updated Strategy for Next Week

Do NOT rush back in Monday morning. Friday’s stabilization is encouraging but not confirmation. Here’s the playbook:

1. Watch GLW closely. If it holds $108-110 through Monday-Tuesday on decreasing volume, the bottom is in and you can start adding. If it breaks $108, we’re going to $100-105 and you wait.

2. LITE is tradeable for aggressive traders with very wide strikes. But this is momentum, not investment. One bad day wipes out a week of gains.

3. FORM is too extended after 20% in one week. Let it consolidate 2-3 weeks. If it holds $75-80, consider exposure. Don’t chase here.

4. GEV, TER, and other industrials need more time. They stabilized Friday but on ‘less bad’ volume, not strong buying. Wait another week.

5. Avoid cruise lines (CCL, CUK), heavy machinery (CAT), and anything with negative P/E (ALGM). Thursday’s rotation into these was panic, not strategy.

Rankings for Next Week

Watch List – Need Confirmation

Ticker	Status / Action
GLW	Up 1.09% to 110.89 on decreasing volume. Held 108 support. If it holds 108-110 Mon-Tue, bottom is in. If breaks 108, going to 100-105.
TER	Flat at -0.30% after Thu crash. Stabilizing. Watch for another week before adding.
GEV	Down 2.30% but volume decreasing. Selling slowing. Watch 720-730 support.

High Risk Momentum

LITE – Up 2.79% to 478.53. Pure momentum at 146 P/E. Tradeable with very wide strikes for aggressive traders only.FORM – Up 17% to 83.72. Parabolic. Let it consolidate 2-3 weeks. If holds 75-80, consider. Don’t chase.

Avoid

CCL, CUK – Cruise lines reversed Thu gains. Down 2%+ on heavy volume.CAT – Down 2.44%. Heavy machinery concerns.ALGM – Negative P/E, still bouncing weakly.CSTM, TEX, ODFL – Industrials and materials weak.

Bottom Line: Wait for Confirmation

Friday delivered what we needed: stabilization on lower volume. GLW held $108 support and bounced to $110.89. LITE continued its run. FORM exploded 17% on real volume. These are encouraging signs that Thursday’s panic found a floor.

But one day of stabilization doesn’t confirm the bottom. We need to see GLW hold $108-110 through next week on light volume. We need to see TER and GEV stabilize without more selling. And we need to avoid chasing extended names like FORM after a 20% weekly run.

The playbook for next week: patience. Watch GLW’s $108-110 support. If it holds on decreasing volume, we’re ready to start adding positions again. If it breaks, we’re heading lower and the wait continues. Don’t rush back in Monday morning. Let the market show you it’s safe to re-enter. That’s how you survive violent corrections without catching falling knives or missing the recovery.