The Relief Rally Arrives

COHR +8.68%, JBL +6.21%, CIEN +5.97% on Light Volume

Friday delivered the relief rally we hoped for after Thursday’s massacre. Coherent (COHR) exploded 8.68% to $227.40 on 733K shares. Jabil (JBL) up 6.21%. Ciena (CIEN) up 5.97% to $268.09. Century Aluminum (CENX) up 5.61%. GE Vernova (GEV) up 4.41%. Even Intel (INTC) rallied 3.57% on massive 8.97 million shares. This is the broad-based bounce you get when Thursday’s panic selling exhausts itself and bargain hunters step in.

But here’s the critical detail: volume was dramatically lower across the board. COHR’s 733K shares is nothing compared to recent heavy volume days. CIEN at 121K shares is a whisper. GLW up 1.35% on only 538K shares—compare that to Thursday’s 5.55 million share panic. When stocks rally on light volume after heavy volume selling, it’s a relief bounce, not institutional accumulation. The question is whether this is the start of recovery or just a dead-cat bounce before more selling.

Let’s break down the winners, understand what the light volume means, and figure out if it’s safe to re-enter positions or if we’re still in wait-and-see mode.

The Leaders: Strong Bounces on Light Volume

COHR (Coherent) – Up 8.68%

Up 8.68% to $227.40 on 733,069 shares. This is Friday’s star performer. COHR got crushed with everything else this week, and today it bounced hard. At 225 P/E (down from 339 P/E earlier in the week), valuation compressed but the company is still profitable with optical components exposure. The 8.68% move suggests short covering and bargain hunting.

But the 733K volume is critical context. Earlier this week COHR was trading 2+ million shares daily on up days. Today’s 733K is light—this is retail and momentum traders buying, not institutional accumulation. COHR remains high-quality with technology moats, but an 8.68% bounce on light volume after a big selloff is typical dead-cat behavior. We need to see follow-through Monday with increasing volume to confirm this is real.

For collar traders: COHR at $227 is interesting if you believe the AI optics thesis. But wait for Monday’s action. If it consolidates $225-230 on moderate volume, consider small positions. If it gaps up Monday on low volume then reverses, this bounce is over.

JBL (Jabil) – Up 6.21%

Electronic components manufacturer up 6.21% to $256.85 on incredibly thin volume (43,853 shares). JBL makes components for data centers and cloud infrastructure. At 40 P/E, valuation is reasonable for the sector. But 43K shares on a 6% up day? This is nothing. A handful of retail buyers can move the stock this much on zero volume.

JBL might be worth watching, but you can’t trade systematic income on 43K share days. There’s no liquidity, no institutional interest, and any collar positions would be impossible to manage. Pass until volume increases dramatically.

CIEN (Ciena) – Up 5.97%

Networking equipment up 5.97% to $268.09 on 121,585 shares. Thursday CIEN got destroyed 5.06% on 1.87 million shares. Friday it bounces 5.97% on 121K shares—93% less volume. This is the definition of a light-volume relief bounce. At 316 P/E, CIEN remains expensive. The bounce makes sense—Thursday’s panic overdid the selling. But without institutional volume confirming the recovery, this could easily reverse.

CIEN needs to hold $265-270 through next week. If it does, and volume stays moderate without more selling, the worst is over. If it breaks $260, we’re testing $250 then $230. The light volume Friday is encouraging (no more panic) but not confirming (no real buying).

GLW and GEV: Modest Recoveries

GLW (Corning) – Up 1.35%

Up 1.35% to $114.31 on 538,732 shares. GLW continues recovering from Thursday’s 3.64% drop on 5.55 million shares. It bounced from $108.68 Thursday to $110.89 Friday (yesterday’s data) to $114.31 today. The 538K volume is dramatically lower than Thursday’s panic, which is good—selling has stopped. But it’s also much lower than the 1.64 million shares on Wednesday’s breakout, which means real institutional buying hasn’t returned.

GLW is now back above $114, recovering most of Thursday’s losses. At 62 P/E with actual profits and multi-year fiber optic contracts, GLW remains the highest-quality AI infrastructure play. The key level is $110—as long as it stays above $110, the uptrend is intact. If it breaks $110 next week, we’re testing $108 then $100.

For collar traders: GLW at $114 is starting to look interesting again. But wait for Monday-Tuesday. If it holds $112-115 on light volume, you can start establishing small positions or selling puts. Don’t go all-in yet—this recovery needs confirmation.

GEV (GE Vernova) – Up 4.41%

Power equipment up 4.41% to $770.08 on 168,160 shares. GEV got absolutely crushed Thursday (down 6.49% on 2 million shares), continued lower Friday previous (down 2.30%), and today finally bounces. The 168K volume is tiny compared to Thursday’s 2 million share panic. This is a relief bounce, not a recovery. At 43 P/E, GEV is reasonably valued for power infrastructure. But if data center build-outs are slowing, even reasonable valuations get compressed. Watch for follow-through next week.

Commodities Bounce: CENX and Aluminum

CENX (Century Aluminum) – Up 5.61%

Aluminum up 5.61% to $49.50 on pathetically thin volume (65,442 shares). CENX bouncing with other beaten-down names. At 62 P/E, aluminum demand expectations are baked in. But 65K shares? You can’t run systematic strategies on this. This is speculative, cyclical, and illiquid. Avoid.

CSTM (Constellium) – Up 2.76%

French aluminum producer up 2.76% on insanely thin volume (15,369 shares). Same story as CENX—commodities bouncing on no volume. Not tradeable.

The Junk Rallies: INTC and Negative P/E Names

INTC (Intel) – Up 3.57%

Up 3.57% on massive 8,974,448 shares—by far the highest volume on today’s scan. Intel has a negative P/E ratio. The company is losing money. The 8.97 million shares on a 3.57% bounce is retail and momentum traders gambling on a turnaround story. Until Intel shows actual profits and competitive products, this is pure speculation. Avoid for systematic income.

ALGM (Allegro) – Up 3.56%

Semiconductor with negative P/E up 3.56% on laughably thin volume (44,314 shares). ALGM has been bouncing weakly for two weeks. Still losing money, still uninvestable. The fact that it’s up 3.56% on 44K shares tells you everything—zero institutional interest, pure retail noise.

GPGI, IMNM – Up 4-5%

Other negative P/E names bouncing on microscopically thin volume (22K-15K shares). Metal fabrication and biotech speculation. All garbage, all uninvestable.

Cruise Lines Extend Thursday’s Bounce

CCL/CUK (Carnival) – Up 2.80%/2.92%

Cruise lines up 2.8-2.9% on moderate volume (CCL 1.24M shares). Thursday cruise lines rallied when tech got destroyed. Friday they sold off. Today they’re bouncing again. This is just sector rotation noise. At 16 P/E, cruise lines aren’t expensive, but they have nothing to do with AI infrastructure and are capital-intensive consumer cyclicals. Not relevant to systematic income strategies focused on tech.

What Friday’s Light Volume Means

Friday’s rally is encouraging but not confirming. Here’s why: Every major name rallied on dramatically lower volume than Thursday’s selling. COHR up 8.68% on 733K vs. millions earlier in the week. CIEN up 5.97% on 121K vs. 1.87M Thursday. GLW up 1.35% on 538K vs. 5.55M Thursday. When stocks rally on light volume after heavy selling, it means three things:

1. The panic is over – No one is rushing to sell anymore. Thursday’s 3-6% drops exhausted the sellers. This is good.

2. But institutions haven’t returned – The light volume shows institutions are on the sidelines. They’re not selling, but they’re not buying aggressively either. This is neutral.

3. This could be a dead-cat bounce – Relief rallies on light volume after panic selling often fail. We need Monday-Tuesday to show follow-through with increasing volume to confirm this is real. This is the risk.

What Happens Next: Three Scenarios

Scenario 1 (Bullish): Monday opens flat to higher, volume stays moderate, stocks consolidate Friday’s gains. Tuesday continues sideways on light volume. By Wednesday, we start seeing 1-2% up days on increasing volume as institutions return. This scenario says Thursday was the bottom and we’re ready to move higher. Probability: 40%.

Scenario 2 (Neutral): Monday-Tuesday chop around Friday’s close on light volume. GLW trades $112-116, CIEN $265-270, COHR $220-230. No breakouts, no breakdowns. We grind sideways for another week as institutions wait for clarity on earnings, CapEx, or macro data. This scenario says we need more time before committing. Probability: 40%.

Scenario 3 (Bearish): Monday gaps down or sells off on increasing volume. GLW breaks $110, CIEN breaks $260, COHR breaks $220. This scenario says Friday’s bounce was a dead-cat rally and Thursday’s selling wasn’t the end but the beginning of a larger correction. We’re heading to GLW $100-105, CIEN $230-250. Probability: 20%.

Strategy for Monday

Do NOT rush back in Monday morning. Friday’s light-volume bounce is not confirmation that the coast is clear. Here’s what to do:

1. Watch GLW. If it holds $112-115 through Monday-Tuesday on moderate volume (750K-1.5M shares), the bottom is in. If it breaks $110, we’re going to $100-105.

2. Watch volume. If Monday’s volume increases with prices stable or higher, institutions are returning = good. If Monday’s volume increases with prices falling = more selling ahead = bad.

3. Consider small test positions. If you’re eager to re-enter, start with 25% of normal position size in GLW or COHR. This lets you participate if the recovery continues but limits damage if we resume selling.

4. Avoid the garbage. INTC, ALGM, GPGI, IMNM all rallied Friday but remain uninvestable with negative P/E ratios. Don’t confuse a bounce with a recovery.

Rankings for Next Week

Tier 1 Watch – Ready to Re-Enter with Confirmation

GLW – Up 1.35% to 114.31 on 538K shares. Key level: 110. Holds above 110 = uptrend intact. Start small positions if it holds 112-115 Mon-Tue.COHR – Up 8.68% to 227.40 on 733K shares. Light volume bounce. Wait for follow-through. If consolidates 225-230, consider small positions.

Tier 2 Watch – Need More Time

CIEN – Up 5.97% on 121K shares. 316 P/E still expensive. Watch 265-270 support.GEV – Up 4.41% on 168K shares. Power infrastructure. Light volume bounce. Watch for follow-through.JBL – Up 6.21% but only 43K shares. No liquidity. Pass.

Avoid Completely

INTC – Negative P/E, losing money. 8.97M share bounce is speculation.ALGM, GPGI, IMNM – All negative P/E, all bouncing on microscopically thin volume.CENX, CSTM – Commodities bouncing on 15K-65K shares. Illiquid.CCL, CUK – Cruise lines. Not relevant to AI infrastructure.

Bottom Line: Cautious Optimism, Not Confirmation

Friday delivered the relief rally we hoped for. COHR up 8.68%, JBL up 6.21%, CIEN up 5.97%, CENX up 5.61%, GEV up 4.41%, GLW up 1.35%. The broad-based bounce after Thursday’s panic is encouraging. It suggests the worst of the selling exhausted itself.

But the light volume across every name is a caution flag. COHR’s 733K shares, CIEN’s 121K shares, GLW’s 538K shares—all dramatically below recent trading ranges. When stocks rally on light volume after heavy selling, it’s often a dead-cat bounce that fails. We need Monday-Tuesday to show follow-through with stable prices and moderate-to-increasing volume.

The playbook for next week: cautious optimism, not aggressive re-entry. Watch GLW’s $110-115 range. If it holds on moderate volume, start establishing small positions or selling puts. But don’t go all-in. Friday’s bounce needs confirmation. If Monday resumes selling on heavy volume, Thursday’s massacre was just the beginning. Wait, watch, and let the market prove it’s safe to re-enter. That’s how you survive corrections without missing recoveries.