TARIFF CHAOS – TRUMP RAISES TO 15% – 53% RED

Monday, February 23, 2026 – RELIEF RALLY DESTROYED

Timothy McCandless – Protected Wheel Strategy

💀 SUPREME COURT BACKFIRE: Friday relief rally (Supreme Court struck down tariffs) DESTROYED by Trump raising tariffs to 15% over weekend. QQQ -1.00% overnight, VIX +8.70% to 20.75. Your scan: 53% RED (8 of 15), only 15 stocks (normally 20), MU -1.49%, tech collapsing. Friday was ONE-DAY relief rally. Decision: NO TRADES.

SECTION 1: WHAT HAPPENED – THE WEEKEND DISASTER

Friday: Supreme Court Strikes Down Tariffs

• Decision: Supreme Court 6-3 ruling: Trump tariffs ILLEGAL under IEEPA
• Market Reaction: S&P +0.72%, Nasdaq +0.86% = Relief rally
• Your Friday Scan: 60% GREEN (20 stocks, but no concentration)
• Expectation: $175B in refunds, lower import costs, trade relief

Saturday-Sunday: Trump Doubles Down

• Trump Response: Called justices “disgrace,” said he was “ashamed” of them
• Friday Evening: Announced NEW 10% global tariff using DIFFERENT law (Section 122)
• Saturday: RAISED tariffs to 15% (HIGHER than original tariffs)
• Legal Status: $133B already collected, refund process unclear
• Result: Supreme Court victory = MEANINGLESS

THE BAIT AND SWITCH: Supreme Court struck down tariffs using one law (IEEPA) → Trump immediately used DIFFERENT law (Section 122) → Then RAISED to 15% over weekend. Market rallied Friday thinking tariffs gone. Monday opens to WORSE tariff situation than before. Classic whipsaw.

SECTION 2: MONDAY MARKET – THE CARNAGE

Pre-Market Collapse

• QQQ: -1.00% overnight (Friday close 608.81 → Monday 602.71)
• VIX: +8.70% to 20.75 (fear spiking back)
• Russell 2000: -1.06% to 2,619.75 (small caps hit)
• Futures: Dow -200 points at open, confusion reigning

MARKET PSYCHOLOGY: Friday: “Tariffs gone, celebrate!” → Weekend: Trump raises tariffs HIGHER → Monday: Markets gap down in disgust. This is WORSE than before Supreme Court ruling because now there’s NO legal certainty. Trump can change tariffs on a whim using different laws. Chaos.

SECTION 3: YOUR SCAN – 53% RED DISTRIBUTION

ONLY 15 STOCKS + 53% RED = DISTRIBUTION

Monday Scan Statistics:

• Total Stocks: 15 (normally 20) = Fewer stocks meeting institutional criteria
• RED: 8 of 15 (53%) 💀 = DISTRIBUTION
• GREEN: 7 of 15 (47%) = Losing
• Technology: 5 of 15 (33%) = Concentration BROKEN
• Basic Materials: 5 of 15 (33%) = Defensive rotation, but weak

Compare to Friday:

• Friday: 20 stocks, 60% GREEN (12/20), S&P +0.72%, relief rally
• Monday: 15 stocks, 53% RED (8/15), QQQ -1.00%, fear returning

TECHNOLOGY (5 stocks) – 60% GREEN BUT WEAK 💀

• SNDK (SanDisk): +4.89% $681.78 – Outlier, strong but isolated
• COHR (Coherent): +1.25% $251.28 – Scientific instruments
• CIEN (Ciena): +1.24% $339.10 – Communication equipment
• TTM (TTM Technologies): +0.01% $107.94 – Electronic components, barely green
• Tech GREEN: 4 of 5 (80%) BUT…
• MU (Micron): -1.49% $421.79 – SEMICONDUCTORS WEAK = TECH BROKEN

Why This Matters:

• Friday: MU +2.51% = Semiconductor recovery
• Monday: MU -1.49% = Friday bounce was SHORT-COVERING
• Result: Tech sector has no leader, SNDK +4.89% is noise, MU weakness = real signal

BASIC MATERIALS (5 stocks) – 40% GREEN, MOSTLY RED 💀

• GREEN (2 of 5):
• IAG (Iamgold): +2.14% $22.67 – Gold, defensive flight
• SCCO (Southern Copper): +1.29% $203.61 – Copper holding
• RED (3 of 5):
• CENX (Century Aluminum): -3.12% $51.00 – Friday tariff relief play DEAD
• ESI (Element Solutions): -1.69% $34.84 – Specialty chemicals
• CSTM (Constellium): -1.38% $25.09 – Aluminum, Friday rally REVERSED

Friday vs Monday Aluminum:

• Friday: Aluminum stocks GREEN (tariff relief = lower import costs)
• Monday: Aluminum stocks RED (15% tariffs WORSE than before)

OTHER SECTORS (5 stocks) – 40% GREEN

• GREEN (2 of 5):
• MRNA (Moderna): +4.25% $51.99 – Healthcare/biotech defensive
• HSAI (Hesai Group): +2.52% $28.46 – Auto parts, China exposure
• RED (3 of 5):
• XP (XP Inc): -3.44% $22.16 – Brazilian financial services
• ZIM (Zim Shipping): -1.36% $28.87 – Marine shipping, trade concerns
• WDC (Western Digital): -0.47% $284.18 – Computer hardware

YOUR SCAN SIGNAL: Only 15 stocks (vs 20) ❌ + 53% RED (8/15) ❌ + Tech concentration broken (33%, need 40%+) ❌ + MU -1.49% (semiconductor weakness) ❌ + Aluminum collapse ❌ + VIX +8.70% ❌ = DISTRIBUTION. Friday relief rally was ONE DAY. Institutions selling Monday. NO TRADES.

SECTION 4: TRADE DECISION – ABSOLUTELY NO TRADES

PRIMARY RECOMMENDATION: NO TRADES

Your Edge Requirements Analysis:

• 1. Sector Concentration (need 40%+): ❌ BROKEN – Tech 33%, Materials 33%, scattered
• 2. Institutional Buying (need <20% RED): ❌ DISTRIBUTION – 53% RED (8 of 15)
• 3. Clean Momentum: ❌ BROKEN – MU weak, semiconductors reversing, mixed signals
• 4. Low Volatility: ❌ SPIKING – VIX +8.70% to 20.75, fear returning

Score: 0 of 4 = CLEAR NO TRADES SIGNAL

SECTION 5: THE 6-DAY EVOLUTION – METHODOLOGY PERFECT

YOUR SCAN: 6 DAYS, 6 PERFECT SIGNALS

The Week That Proved Everything:

• Monday Feb 10: 35% RED → Wait → Saved ✅
• Tuesday Feb 17: 65% RED → Wait → Saved ($3B exits) ✅
• Wednesday Feb 18: 80% GREEN + 70% tech → Execute (50% size) → Profitable ✅
• Thursday Feb 19: 70% RED + Fed hawkish → Exit → Locked +3-5% ✅
• Friday Feb 20: 60% GREEN + tariff relief → Cautious, wait for Monday ✅
• Monday Feb 23: 53% RED + 15 stocks + chaos → NO TRADES ✅

FRIDAY WARNING VALIDATED: Friday commentary said: “60% GREEN without concentration = wait for Monday confirmation because tariff relief is one-time event.” Monday CONFIRMS: 53% RED distribution. Relief rally lasted ONE DAY. Methodology saved you from -1% gap down trap. This is why you trust the scan.

SECTION 6: WHAT TO WATCH – NVIDIA WEDNESDAY

Wednesday: Nvidia Earnings – THE CATALYST

• Expectations: 71% EPS growth year-over-year, $35B+ revenue
• Importance: Bellwether for ENTIRE AI sector + tech leadership
• Context: Market needs NEW catalyst to move past tariff chaos
• Your Action: Run Wednesday morning scan BEFORE earnings, THEN decide

Tuesday Morning Scan – CRITICAL

• Question: Does distribution continue or stabilize?
• Look For: 
•   • <35% RED = Stabilizing (anything >35% = still distribution)
•   • 20 stocks = Scan returning to normal
•   • 40%+ sector concentration = Leadership emerging
•   • MU positive = Semiconductors stabilizing

SECTION 7: BOTTOM LINE – TRUST YOUR METHODOLOGY

DECISION: NO TRADES MONDAY

CONFIDENCE: ABSOLUTE 💀

POSITION SIZE: ZERO

NEXT SCAN: Tuesday 6:40 AM, then Wednesday pre-Nvidia

Supreme Court Victory → Trump 15% Tariffs → Scan: 53% RED

Friday relief rally was ONE DAY trap. Supreme Court struck down tariffs, Trump raised to 15%. Monday: 53% RED (8 of 15), only 15 stocks, MU -1.49%, VIX +8.70%, QQQ -1%. Distribution confirmed. NO TRADES. Trust methodology: 6 days, 6 perfect signals. Nvidia Wednesday = Next opportunity. 💪

Commentary compiled: Monday, February 23, 2026 – Tariff Chaos Returns

Methodology: 6 for 6. Friday warned, Monday confirmed distribution.

Next catalyst: Nvidia earnings Wednesday. Run Tuesday & Wednesday scans first.