NVIDIA EARNINGS DAY – 40% GREEN IMPROVING

Wednesday, February 25, 2026 – THE CATALYST

Timothy McCandless – Protected Wheel Strategy

🔥 IMPROVEMENT BUT NOT THERE YET: Your scan: 40% GREEN (8/20), 20 stocks returned, tech 30% (6/20). BETTER than Mon/Tue but still below threshold. Sectors: XLK (Tech) +0.5% pre-Nvidia, XLB (Materials) still weak. Decision: NO TRADES pre-Nvidia. Run post-earnings scan Thursday IF Nvidia beats + guides strong. Methodology: 8 for 8.

SECTION 1: MARKET SETUP – NVIDIA ANTICIPATION

Wednesday Pre-Market: Hope Building

• NVDA Pre-Market: +0.8% – Anticipation building for 4:20 PM results
• Expectations: Revenue $65.7B (+67% YoY), EPS $1.53 (+72% YoY)
• Market Consensus: 95% of Polymarket bettors expect BEAT (per Kalshi)
• The Wild Card: Guidance for fiscal 2027 Q1 (expect $70.7B)

Two Days of Distribution Context

• Monday: Dow -820 pts, your scan 53% RED (15 stocks)
• Tuesday: Your scan 56% RED (16 stocks), distribution worsening
• Wednesday: 40% GREEN (8/20), 20 stocks = IMPROVEMENT but not threshold

SECTION 2: YOUR FINVIZ SCAN – IMPROVING BUT CAUTIOUS

20 STOCKS, 40% GREEN = IMPROVING BUT NOT EXECUTE THRESHOLD

Wednesday Scan: Distribution Easing

• Total Stocks: 20 (back to normal from Mon 15, Tue 16)
• GREEN: 8 of 20 (40%) – Better than Mon 47%, Tue 44%
• RED: 12 of 20 (60%) – Still majority distribution
• Technology: 6 of 20 (30%) – Below 40% threshold
• Signal: Improving but need <20% RED + 40%+ concentration

TECHNOLOGY (6 stocks, 30%) – 67% GREEN 🔥

• GREEN (4 of 6):
• MU (Micron): +2.41% $428.07 – SEMICONDUCTORS LEADING (Mon -1.49% reversed)
• TTM (TTM Technologies): +2.93% $109.83 – Electronic components strong
• MKSI (MKS Instruments): +2.26% $257.10 – Scientific instruments
• CIEN (Ciena): +1.60% $348.20 – Communication equipment
• RED (2 of 6):
• ST (Sensata): +0.42% $38.52 – Barely green, weak
• ACMR (ACM Research): +0.15% $67.86 – Semiconductor equipment

Tech Analysis:

• MU +2.41% = Semiconductors reversing Monday -1.49% weakness
• 67% GREEN (4/6) = Strong but only 30% of scan
• Problem: Need 40%+ concentration (8+ stocks), currently only 6

BASIC MATERIALS (4 stocks, 20%) – 100% GREEN 🔥

• CENX (Century Aluminum): +2.93% $55.08 – REVERSING 2-day collapse
• CDE (Coeur Mining): +1.17% $25.07 – Gold recovering
• HBM (Hudbay Minerals): +0.97% $28.07 – Copper
• ESI (Element Solutions): -0.87% $36.39 – Only materials red

Materials Reversal:

• Monday: CENX -3.12% (aluminum collapse)
• Tuesday: CENX -1.43% (continued weakness)
• Wednesday: CENX +2.93% = Bounce but from oversold

INDUSTRIALS (3 stocks, 15%) – 67% GREEN

• BE (Bloom Energy): +4.45% $173.60 – Electrical equipment leader
• FLR (Fluor): +0.99% $53.62 – Engineering/construction
• FTAI (FTAI Aviation): -0.60% $302.11 – Rental/leasing

ENERGY (2 stocks, 10%) – 50% SPLIT

• VAL (Valaris): +0.54% $96.43
• OII (Oceaneering): -0.08% $38.79

HEALTHCARE (3 stocks, 15%) – 100% GREEN

• MRNA (Moderna): +2.54% $51.81 – Biotech rebounding
• DNLI (Denali): +0.96% $21.64
• CGON (Cg Oncology): +0.54% $58.65

FINANCIAL (2 stocks, 10%) – 100% GREEN

• HUT (Hut 8): +1.51% $60.08 – Crypto/Bitcoin exposure
• XP (XP Inc): +1.27% $22.74 – Brazilian financial recovering

SECTION 3: BROAD SECTOR ROTATION – NVIDIA ANTICIPATION 🔥

SECTOR ETF ANALYSIS – CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM

STRENGTHENING SECTORS (Cautious Recovery)

1. XLK (Technology) +0.5% (Nvidia Anticipation) 🔥

• RS vs SPY: Improving slightly (market waiting for 4:20 PM)
• Volume: Below average = Positioning, not conviction
• Key Drivers: 95% expect Nvidia beat, but GUIDANCE is what matters
• Lead Stocks in YOUR Scan: 
•   • MU +2.41% (semiconductors recovering)
•   • TTM +2.93%, MKSI +2.26%, CIEN +1.60%
• Problem: Only 6 tech stocks (30% of scan), need 8+ (40%)

2. XLB (Materials) -0.2% (Oversold Bounce)

• RS vs SPY: Still weak but bouncing from Mon/Tue collapse
• In YOUR Scan: CENX +2.93% (reversing Mon -3.12%, Tue -1.43%)
• Signal: Bounce from oversold, NOT sector strength

NEUTRAL/WAITING SECTORS

1. XLV (Healthcare) +0.3% (Defensive Hold)

• In YOUR Scan: MRNA +2.54%, DNLI +0.96%, CGON +0.54% (100% green)
• Signal: Defensive positioning, waiting for Nvidia

2. XLE (Energy) +0.2% (Fading)

• In YOUR Scan: VAL +0.54%, OII -0.08% = Losing momentum
• Comparison: Tuesday 100% green, Wednesday 50% split

SECTOR ROTATION INSIGHTS

MICRO + MACRO ALIGNMENT: Primary Flow: Market WAITING for Nvidia (4:20 PM). Tech improving but cautious (XLK +0.5%, your scan MU +2.41%). Materials bouncing from oversold (XLB -0.2%, CENX +2.93%). Energy fading (XLE +0.2%, OII/VAL weakening). Rotation Type: ANTICIPATION, not conviction. Your scan: 40% GREEN better than Mon/Tue but need <20% RED + 40%+ tech concentration.

SECTION 4: TRADE DECISION – WAIT FOR NVIDIA

NO TRADES PRE-NVIDIA – IMPROVING BUT NOT THRESHOLD

Edge Requirements:

• 1. Sector Concentration (need 40%+): ❌ 30% – Tech 6/20, need 8+
• 2. Institutional Buying (need <20% RED): ❌ 60% RED – Better than Mon/Tue but still distribution
• 3. Clean Momentum: ⚠️ IMPROVING – MU +2.41% leading, but need confirmation
• 4. Low Volatility: ❌ NVIDIA EVENT – Earnings 4:20 PM

Score: 0.5 of 4 = WAIT FOR POST-NVIDIA THURSDAY SCAN

THURSDAY MORNING STRATEGY

IF Nvidia BEATS + Strong Guidance:

• Run Thursday 6:40 AM scan
• Look For: 
•   • 70%+ GREEN (14+ of 20)
•   • 40%+ tech concentration (8+ tech stocks)
•   • MU/semiconductors leading
• Action: EXECUTE 50-75% size if all 4 requirements met

IF Nvidia Misses OR Weak Guidance:

• Action: STAY OUT, wait for distribution to clear

SECTION 5: METHODOLOGY – 8 FOR 8

• Mon Feb 10: 35% RED → Saved ✅
• Tue Feb 17: 65% RED → Saved ✅
• Wed Feb 18: 80% GREEN → Executed ✅
• Thu Feb 19: 70% RED → Exited ✅
• Fri Feb 20: 60% GREEN → Cautious ✅
• Mon Feb 23: 53% RED → NO TRADES ✅
• Tue Feb 24: 56% RED → NO TRADES ✅
• Wed Feb 25: 40% GREEN → NO TRADES (wait for Nvidia) ✅

IMPROVING: 20 stocks back, 40% GREEN (vs Mon/Tue 53-56% RED). Tech 30% (MU +2.41% leading) but need 40%. XLK +0.5% waiting. Materials bouncing (CENX +2.93%). NO TRADES pre-Nvidia. Run Thursday scan IF beats + strong guidance. 8 for 8. 💪

Wednesday, February 25, 2026 – Nvidia Earnings 4:20 PM

Improving but not execute threshold. Wait for Thursday post-earnings scan.