US-IRAN WAR DAY 5 + SECTOR ROTATION

MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY

US-IRAN WAR DAY 5 + SECTOR ROTATION

Wednesday, March 4, 2026 – MARKET DESTROYED

Timothy McCandless – Protected Wheel Strategy

💀 MARKET COLLAPSE: Scan IMPLODES: Mon 19 stocks → Tue 19 → Wed 6 stocks (68% destruction). 50% GREEN (3/6) BUT universe collapsed = FALSE SIGNAL like Friday Feb 27. Mon: 84% GREEN (19) = Real. Wed: 50% GREEN (6) = Survivors, not recovery. GREEN: RNG +0.37%, OLN +2.90%, GFS -0.00%. RED: EYE -3.56%, CGON -2.18%, BTSG -2.14%. QQQ -0.8%, SPY -0.6%, VIX 24.1. War: Iran launched 200 missiles at Saudi oil facilities. NO TRADES. Wait for scan expansion to 25-30 stocks.

SECTION 1: GEOPOLITICAL – WAR DAY 5

• Saudi Arabia: Iran launched 200 ballistic missiles at Saudi oil facilities (Abqaiq, Khurais)
• Oil: Brent crude $95/barrel (up from $88 Monday)
• US Casualties: 12 total dead (3 more overnight in Bahrain strike)
• Regional Spread: War now hitting Saudi Arabia (US ally), threatening global oil supply

SECTION 2: YOUR SCAN – UNIVERSE COLLAPSED

6 STOCKS: 3 GREEN (50%), 3 RED (50%) = DESTROYED UNIVERSE

5-Day Progression:

• Monday March 2: 19 stocks, 84% GREEN = Accumulation
• Tuesday March 3: 19 stocks, 100% RED = Panic
• Wednesday March 4: 6 stocks, 50% GREEN = Universe DESTROYED (68% stocks dropped out)

CRITICAL: 50% GREEN looks better than Tuesday’s 100% RED. BUT 68% of stocks (13 of 19) FELL OUT of scan entirely = Can’t maintain momentum criteria (above 20-day SMA, near 52-week highs). This is EXACTLY like Friday Feb 27: 68% GREEN but only 19 stocks = Survivor bias. Real recovery = Scan EXPANDS to 30-40 stocks. Wed: Only 6 survivors = Market still broken.

The 6 Survivors

GREEN (3 stocks):

• OLN (Olin) +2.90% $25.18 – Chemicals (Materials)
• RNG (RingCentral) +0.37% $39.31 – Software (Tech)
• GFS (GlobalFoundries) -0.00% $47.57 – Semiconductors (flat = “green”)

RED (3 stocks):

• EYE (National Vision) -3.56% $28.01 – Retail
• CGON (Cg Oncology) -2.18% $60.23 – Biotech
• BTSG (BrightSpring) -2.14% $41.06 – Healthcare

SECTION 3: SECTOR ROTATION – STILL WEAK

• QQQ: -0.8% $595 (3rd day down)
• SPY: -0.6% $685
• VIX: 24.1 (elevated, fear persisting)
• XLK: -0.9%, XLI: -1.1%, XLE: -0.6%

MICRO vs MACRO: Your scan: 50% GREEN (3/6 survivors). Sectors: ALL still negative (QQQ -0.8%, XLK -0.9%). DISCONNECT = Don’t trust scan. When sectors negative + universe collapsed (6 vs 19) = Market still distributing. 50% GREEN in tiny universe = FALSE hope, like Friday Feb 27 (68% GREEN but only 19 stocks before Monday’s 100% collapse).

SECTION 4: DECISION – NO TRADES

NO COLLAR TRADES – SURVIVOR BIAS

• Why 50% GREEN misleading: Only 6 stocks total (down 68% from 19)
• What we need: Scan expands to 25-30+ stocks with 70%+ GREEN
• Sectors must confirm: QQQ positive, XLK +0.5%+, VIX below 20
• War must stabilize: Saudi oil attacks, 12 US dead, $95 oil = Still escalating

SECTION 5: BOTTOM LINE

Wed: 6 stocks, 50% GREEN = FALSE signal. Mon: 19 stocks, 84% GREEN = Real. Universe size matters MORE than %. Scan collapsed 68% (19→6) = Market destroyed, not recovering. War Day 5: Iran hit Saudi oil, 12 US dead, $95 oil. NO TRADES. Your methodology: Avoided Tuesday 100% RED crash, now avoiding Wednesday survivor bias trap. Wait for 25-30+ stocks. 💪

Wednesday, March 4, 2026 – War Day 5

Universe size = Truth. Percentages = Lies.