WAR WEEK 2 + FIRST UNIVERSE EXPANSION

MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY

WAR WEEK 2 + FIRST UNIVERSE EXPANSION

Monday, March 9, 2026 – EXPANSION BUT NOT ENOUGH

Timothy McCandless – Protected Wheel Strategy

⚠️ EXPANSION: 9 stocks (up from 6) = FIRST EXPANSION, 67% GREEN (6/9). NEW: VRT +8.51% ($100B industrials BEAST), MRNA +3.55%, YPF +1.11%, CLMT -2.30%. Kept: RNG -1.10%, AAOI +10.25%, CENX +1.29%, CGON -0.94%, PARR -1.89%. BUT 9 stocks still below 25-30 threshold. War Day 10: 21 US dead. QQQ +0.4%, XLK +0.6%. VIX 22.1 (still elevated). NO TRADES YET – need 20+ stocks for real signal. This is EARLY expansion, not accumulation.

SECTION 1: UNIVERSE EXPANSION – PROGRESS

6 → 9 STOCKS (+50% EXPANSION)

Full Progression:

• Mon Mar 2: 19 stocks, 84% GREEN (peak)
• Tue Mar 3: 19 stocks, 100% RED (collapse)
• Wed Mar 4: 6 stocks, 50% GREEN (destroyed)
• Thu Mar 5: 6 stocks, 50% GREEN (frozen)
• Fri Mar 6: 6 stocks, 50% GREEN (frozen)
• Mon Mar 9: 9 stocks, 67% GREEN = FIRST EXPANSION ✅

POSITIVE SIGNAL: After 3 days frozen at 6, universe expanding to 9 = Market healing. 3 NEW stocks entered scan (VRT, MRNA, YPF) + 1 new (CLMT) = 4 total additions. BUT 9 still below our 25-30 threshold for full accumulation. This is EARLY recovery, not confirmed reversal. Watch for further expansion Tuesday.

The 9 Stocks – 6 GREEN, 3 RED

NEW ENTRIES (4 stocks):

• VRT (Vertiv) +8.51% $262.36 ($100.4B) – Industrials/Electrical Equipment – MASSIVE cap, LEADER
• MRNA (Moderna) +3.55% $54.38 ($21.5B) – Healthcare/Biotech
• YPF +1.11% $37.30 ($14.7B) – Energy/Argentina (geopolitical play)
• CLMT (Calumet) -2.30% $29.70 – Materials/Chemicals

HELD FROM LAST WEEK (5 stocks):

• AAOI +10.25% $105.38 – Tech/Communication Equipment SURGING
• CENX +1.29% $54.38 – Materials/Aluminum
• RNG -1.10% $41.56 – Tech/Software
• CGON -0.94% $61.30 – Healthcare/Biotech
• PARR -1.89% $47.95 – Energy/Refining (your old Mon 3/2 collar trade)

DROPPED OUT FROM LAST WEEK (1 stock):

• EYE (National Vision) – Fell out, couldn’t maintain momentum

SECTION 2: SECTOR ROTATION – CAUTIOUS POSITIVE

• QQQ: +0.4% $597 (first positive in week)
• SPY: +0.3% $688
• VIX: 22.1 (still elevated, not below 20 threshold)
• 10-Year: 4.20% (down from 4.25% Fri)

KEY SECTORS:

• XLK (Technology) +0.6%
•   • YOUR Scan: AAOI +10.25%, RNG -1.10%
•   • Signal: Tech positive but modest (+0.6% not +1%+)
• XLI (Industrials) +0.8%
•   • YOUR Scan: VRT +8.51% ($100B beast confirming)
•   • Signal: Industrials LEADING = Best sector
• XLV (Healthcare) +0.5%
•   • YOUR Scan: MRNA +3.55%, CGON -0.94%
• XLE (Energy) +0.4%
•   • YOUR Scan: PARR -1.89%, YPF +1.11%

SECTOR SIGNAL: BETTER not GOOD. All major sectors positive (XLI +0.8%, XLK +0.6%, XLV +0.5%) = Healing. BUT gains modest (+0.4% to +0.8%), VIX still 22.1 (vs 17.2 Mar 2 peak). This is recovery ATTEMPT, not confirmed reversal. Your scan (9 stocks) + sectors both show SAME cautious improvement. Wait for more confirmation.

SECTION 3: WAR UPDATE – WEEK 2

• US Casualties: 21 dead (3 more over weekend)
• Oil: $105/barrel (up from $102 Fri)
• Ceasefire Talks: Switzerland hosting US-Iran negotiations this week
• Market Impact: Cautious optimism on talks = Modest rally

SECTION 4: DECISION – STILL NO TRADES

NO COLLAR TRADES – NEED 20+ STOCKS

Why NOT Trading Today:

• Universe: 9 stocks (improving from 6) BUT still below 20-25 threshold
• Percentage: 67% GREEN good BUT in small universe = Not reliable
• Sectors: Positive but modest (XLI +0.8% not +1%+)
• VIX: 22.1 still elevated (need below 20)
• War: Talks starting but 21 dead, $105 oil = Still risky
• Last Time: Mon Mar 2 had 19 stocks + XLK +1.1% + VIX 17.2 = Much stronger

What We Need Tuesday:

• Further Expansion: 15-20+ stocks (9 → 15+ = real momentum)
• Stronger Sectors: XLK +0.8%+, XLI +1%+, multiple sectors +0.5%+
• VIX: Breaking below 20
• War: Positive news from Switzerland talks

SECTION 5: BOTTOM LINE

PROGRESS: 6 → 9 stocks (+50%), 67% GREEN. VRT +8.51% ($100B) = Real leader. Sectors positive (XLI +0.8%, XLK +0.6%). War: 21 dead, ceasefire talks starting. This is EARLY recovery, not confirmed. NO TRADES until 15-20+ stocks + VIX <20. Watch Tuesday for further expansion. Patient wins. 💪

Monday, March 9, 2026 – War Week 2 / First Expansion

Healing started. Not healed yet.