STABILIZATION: 11 STOCKS, 45% GREEN

MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY

STABILIZATION: 11 STOCKS, 45% GREEN

Friday, March 13, 2026 – NO TRADES, WAIT FOR EXPANSION

Timothy McCandless – Protected Wheel Strategy

⚠️ STABILIZING NOT RECOVERING: 11 stocks (same as Thu), 45% GREEN (5/11) vs Thu 18%. RETURNS: MU +4.06% ($475B mega-cap back!), PARR +0.33% (energy back), OLN -2.53% (new). GREEN: AXTI +8.17%, DOCN +2.44%, MU +4.06%, PARR +0.33%, CGON -0.05%. RED: CENX -5.13%, AA -2.85%, OLN -2.53%, YPF -1.46%, ADEA -0.48%, CIEN -0.19%. NO NEW: Universe STUCK at 11 (Thu 11 → Fri 11) = No expansion. QQQ flat, XLK flat, VIX 23.8 (still elevated). NO TRADES – need 15+ stocks + expansion to even consider. Friday stabilization ≠ reversal signal. Wait.

SECTION 1: UNIVERSE STATUS – STUCK

11 STOCKS (NO EXPANSION) – 45% GREEN (5/11)

Week 2 Complete Progression:

• Mon Mar 9: 9 stocks, 67% GREEN (first expansion)
• Tue Mar 10: 15 stocks, 87% GREEN (executed 25-33%)
• Wed Mar 11: 20 stocks, 90% GREEN (scaled to 50-75%)
• Thu Mar 12: 11 stocks, 18% GREEN (exited all)
• Fri Mar 13: 11 STOCKS, 45% GREEN (NO EXPANSION, NO TRADE)

CRITICAL INSIGHT: Universe STUCK at 11 (Thu 11 → Fri 11) = NO NEW LEADERS. Compare: Last week Wed-Fri stuck at 6 (Mar 4-6) = Frozen market. This week: Thu-Fri stuck at 11 = Same pattern. 45% GREEN (5/11) looks better than Thu 18% (2/11) BUT it’s SURVIVOR BIAS – same exact 11 stocks, no expansion. Real recovery = Universe EXPANDS to 15-20+. MU $475B back is positive BUT only 11 total stocks = Not enough. Wait for Monday expansion signal.

SECTION 2: THE 11 STOCKS – 5 GREEN, 6 RED

GREEN (5 stocks, 45%)

• AXTI +8.17% $50.55 ($2.8B) – Semiconductor Equipment (your exited Thu collar)
• MU +4.06% $421.80 ($474.7B) – MEGA-CAP BACK! (dropped Thu AM)
• DOCN +2.44% $67.83 ($6.2B) – Software Infrastructure (your exited Thu collar)
• PARR +0.33% $53.31 ($2.6B) – Energy BACK! (dropped Thu AM)
• CGON -0.05% $62.94 – Biotech (essentially flat)

RED (6 stocks, 55%)

• CENX -5.13% $54.75 – Aluminum (worst performer)
• AA -2.85% $64.05 – Aluminum
• OLN -2.53% $25.35 ($2.9B) – Chemicals (NEW entry)
• YPF -1.46% $37.70 – Argentina Energy
• ADEA -0.48% $22.76 – Software
• CIEN -0.19% $336.17 – Communication Equipment (your exited Thu collar)

COMPOSITION vs THURSDAY

RETURNED (2 stocks):

• MU +4.06% – Mega-cap back
• PARR +0.33% – Energy back

NEW ENTRY (1 stock):

• OLN -2.53% – Chemicals

DROPPED FROM THURSDAY (3 stocks):

• VRT – Industrials ($98.7B dropped)
• MRNA – Biotech
• CZR – Casinos

HELD FROM THURSDAY (8 stocks):

• AXTI, DOCN, CIEN, CENX, AA, ADEA, YPF, CGON – All held

NET CHANGE: 2 returned (MU, PARR), 1 new (OLN), 3 dropped (VRT, MRNA, CZR) = Net ZERO expansion. Thu 11 → Fri 11 = STUCK. MU $475B returning is positive signal BUT universe not expanding = Market not healing yet. Need to see 15+ stocks Monday for re-entry consideration.

SECTION 3: COMPLETE SECTOR ROTATION

FLAT – VIX STILL ELEVATED

Broad Market

• QQQ: +0.1% $600 (essentially flat)
• SPY: +0.2% $696 (essentially flat)
• VIX: 23.8 (down from 24.3 Thu but still elevated, above 20)
• 10-Year: 4.13% (down from 4.15%)

Sectors – Mixed

• XLK (Technology) +0.3% (slightly positive)
•   • YOUR Scan: AXTI +8.17%, MU +4.06%, DOCN +2.44% confirm
•   • But CIEN -0.19%, ADEA -0.48% weak
• XLB (Materials) -0.5% (negative)
•   • YOUR Scan: CENX -5.13%, AA -2.85%, OLN -2.53% ALL red
• XLE (Energy) +0.2% (slightly positive)
•   • YOUR Scan: PARR +0.33%, YPF -1.46% (mixed)
• XLI, XLV, XLF, XLY, etc: All -0.2% to +0.3% (flat/mixed)

SECTOR SIGNAL: FLAT not RECOVERING. QQQ +0.1%, SPY +0.2% = No momentum. XLK +0.3% (tech) slightly positive but XLB -0.5% (materials) negative. Your scan: Tech stocks green (AXTI, MU, DOCN) but materials all red (CENX, AA, OLN). VIX 23.8 still elevated (above 20). This is Friday stabilization (bounce from Thu -1.5% collapse) NOT recovery. Real recovery = Sectors +0.5%+, VIX <20. Wait for Monday.

SECTION 4: DECISION – NO TRADES

NO TRADES – WAIT FOR EXPANSION

Why NOT Trading Friday:

• ❌ Universe: 11 stocks (stuck from Thu, need 15+ minimum)
• ❌ No Expansion: Thu 11 → Fri 11 = ZERO growth (need to see 15-20+)
• ⚠️ Percentage: 45% GREEN better than Thu 18% BUT survivor bias (same 11 stocks)
• ❌ Sectors: Flat/mixed (XLK +0.3%, XLB -0.5%), need +0.5%+
• ❌ VIX: 23.8 still elevated (need below 20)
• ✅ Positive: MU $475B back, AXTI +8.17% BUT not enough alone

COMPARE TO LAST WEEK: Last week Wed-Fri Mar 4-6: Stuck at 6 stocks, 50% GREEN frozen. You waited 3 days for Mon Mar 9 expansion to 9. This week Thu-Fri: Stuck at 11 stocks. Same pattern = Wait for Monday expansion. MU back is positive BUT 11 stocks = Not enough. Your methodology: Don’t trade small survivor pools. Need 15+ stocks minimum for consideration.

What to Watch Monday:

• Universe Expansion: 11 → 15+ stocks = Real recovery starting
• Percentage: 70%+ GREEN in larger universe
• Leaders: More Wed stocks returning (MRVL, LASR, AAOI, etc)
• Sectors: XLK +0.5%+, XLI +0.5%+, most sectors positive
• VIX: Breaking below 20

SECTION 5: BOTTOM LINE

STABILIZING: 11 stocks (stuck from Thu), 45% GREEN (5/11). MU $475B back (+4.06%), PARR back (+0.33%), AXTI +8.17%. BUT universe NOT expanding (Thu 11 → Fri 11), sectors flat/mixed, VIX 23.8 (elevated). Friday bounce ≠ recovery. NO TRADES. Watch Monday for 15+ stock expansion. Your methodology: Small pools = survivor bias. Wait for broad accumulation. 9 for 9. 💪

Friday, March 13, 2026 – Week 2 Ends

Patience. Universe stuck at 11. Wait for expansion.