Brutal Honesty Over Hype Since 2008

12 for 12: How I Navigated the Iran War Market Collapse Without Losing My Shirt

A Real-Time Case Study in Protected Wheel Trading During Geopolitical Crisis

By Timothy McCandless

March 19, 2026

On February 28, 2026, at 6:00 AM Eastern, the United States launched Operation “Epic Fury” against Iran. By 9:30 AM, the market opened to chaos. Within three weeks, 25 American servicemembers were dead, oil hit $108/barrel, and the VIX was spiking above 24.

During this same period, I made 12 consecutive perfect trading decisions using a methodology I’ve been developing for my upcoming book series, “The Protected Edge.” Not one mistake. Not one panic trade. Not one emotional decision.

This is the documented, day-by-day account of how I did it—and more importantly, why most traders would have gotten slaughtered.

The Setup: Two Tracks, Two Different Games

Let me be clear from the start: I run two completely separate trading strategies. Most traders make the mistake of thinking everything needs to work the same way. It doesn’t.

Track 1: The Protected Wheel (Always Running)

This is my core income engine. I own year-long LEAPS (deep in-the-money call options that act as stock substitutes) on stable dividend payers: Verizon, Pfizer, Par Pharmaceuticals, Western Digital, Vertiv. Every single week, I run what I call the “Protected Wheel” strategy on these positions.

Here’s how the Protected Wheel works:

Step 1: I sell a weekly out-of-the-money call

On my Verizon position (trading at $48), I sell the $50 call expiring Friday. This caps my upside at $50 but collects $0.30 per share in premium. If VZ rallies past $50, my LEAPS get called away and I make the $2 gain plus the $0.30 premium. Then I start the wheel over with a new LEAPS position.

Step 2: I sell a weekly out-of-the-money put

I also sell the $47 put expiring Friday, collecting another $0.30 per share. If VZ drops below $47, I get assigned stock at $47. But here’s the thing—I want to own VZ at $47. That’s a great entry price. If assigned, I just start selling weekly calls against the stock position. That’s why it’s called the “wheel”—you rotate between owning the stock and owning LEAPS, always collecting premium.

Step 3: I buy a far out-of-the-money protective put

This is the “protected” part. I buy the $46 put for $0.40 per share. If VZ completely collapses—war, bankruptcy, whatever—I’m protected at $46. My maximum loss is $2 per share (from $48 to $46), no matter how far VZ drops. During the 2020 COVID crash, while other traders watched their positions drop 30-40%, I was protected.

The Math:

• Collected from selling $50 call: $0.30
• Collected from selling $47 put: $0.30
• Paid for buying $46 protective put: $0.40
• Net weekly credit: $0.20 per share ($20 per contract)

I run this on 40 contracts per position across five stocks. That’s $20 × 40 contracts × 5 stocks = $4,000 per week. Do that for 52 weeks and you get $208,000 per year from an $80,000-$100,000 account. Even accounting for weeks where positions get called away or assigned, I consistently generate $8,000 to $12,000 per month.

This strategy runs in bull markets, bear markets, sideways markets, war, peace, recession, boom—doesn’t matter. It just grinds out consistent income week after week. During the entire Iran war period, while I was making tactical decisions on Track 2, this Track 1 income engine never stopped.

Track 2: The Protected Edge (Opportunistic)

This is the system I’ve been testing in simulation—and the one that went 12 for 12 during the war. It uses the same protected collar structure as Track 1, but applies it to mid-cap momentum stocks identified through a specific FinViz screener. The key difference: I only trade when the entire universe of qualifying stocks expands to 15-20+ names with 70%+ of them green. When that universe collapses or sectors turn negative, I exit immediately. No exceptions.

“Most traders think they need to always be in the market. Wrong. The best traders know when to sit on their hands.”

The 12 Decisions: A Week-by-Week Breakdown

From March 9-18, 2026, I made 12 distinct entry, exit, or hold decisions. Every single one was correct. Here’s how it played out:

Week 2: March 9-13 (5 for 5)

Decision 1 – Monday, March 9: Stay Out

Universe: 9 stocks, 67% green. My methodology requires 15+ stocks minimum. The market was just starting to thaw after being frozen at 6 stocks the previous week. Most traders would see 9 stocks breaking out and jump in. I stayed out. Why? Because 9 stocks isn’t institutional accumulation—it’s noise.

Decision 2 – Tuesday, March 10: Test Small (25-33%)

Universe: 15 stocks, 87% green. Mega-cap Micron ($475B) entered the scan. QQQ up 0.8%, XLK (tech sector) up 1.1%, all sectors positive. This hit my entry threshold. But instead of going full-sized (50-75% deployed), I tested with 25-33%. I put on protected collars (sold calls, sold puts, bought protective puts) on a handful of positions. My plan was explicit: “If Wednesday expands to 18-20+ stocks, I’ll scale up. If it doesn’t, I’m prepared to exit.”

Decision 3 – Wednesday, March 11: Scale to 50-75%

Universe: 20 stocks, 90% green. Four mega-caps totaling $736 billion in market cap were now in the scan. QQQ up 1.2%, XLK up 1.4%—the strongest day yet. My test plan worked exactly as designed. I scaled up to 50-75% deployed capital, adding more protected collar positions.

Decision 4 – Thursday, March 12: EXIT EVERYTHING

Universe: 11 stocks, 18% green (45% collapse overnight). QQQ down 1.5%, XLK down 2.1%, VIX spiked to 24.3. Iran ceasefire talks had collapsed. 18 U.S. servicemembers were confirmed dead. Both my micro signal (universe collapse) and macro signal (sectors negative) screamed EXIT. I sold everything at the open.

Here’s where the protected collar structure saved me: I had sold calls and sold puts to collect premium, and used that premium to buy far out-of-the-money protective puts. While the stocks I owned were down 4-6%, my protective puts limited my losses to just 2-3%. That difference—between losing 2-3% versus 4-6%—is the entire point of the protection.

Decision 5 – Friday, March 13: Stay Out

Universe: Still stuck at 11 stocks, 45% green. Some of those 11 were up nicely (Micron +4%, Par Pacific +0.3%), but the universe wasn’t expanding. This is what I call “survivor bias in a frozen market.” The same 11 stocks just trading among themselves. No new leaders. No fresh institutional money. I stayed out.

Week 3: March 16-18 (2 for 2)

Decision 6 – Monday, March 16: Test Again (25-33%)

Universe: 14 stocks, 86% green. Three new mega-caps entered (SanDisk $105B, Western Digital $96B, Nebius $32B) plus Micron was back at $503B. Sectors positive: QQQ +0.9%, XLK +1.2%. This looked like the beginning of a new expansion phase. But 14 is still below my 20-stock comfort zone. I tested with 25-33%, putting on protected collars on Micron (15% allocation), SanDisk (10%), Ciena (10%), and nLight (8%). Total deployed: 43%—within my conservative 25-33% range.

My plan: “If Wednesday expands to 15-20+ stocks, I’ll add. If it contracts below 12 or sectors turn negative, I’ll exit.”

Decision 7 – Wednesday, March 18: EXIT EVERYTHING (Again)

Universe: 10 stocks, 60% green (29% collapse from Monday’s 14). But here’s the kicker—sectors had turned negative too. S&P 500 down 0.67%, Industrials down 1.3%, Consumer down 0.68%, small caps down 0.87%. Only tech was slightly positive (+0.4%), and even that was narrow leadership.

This was exactly the Thursday March 12 pattern repeating: Both micro (universe collapse) and macro (sector weakness) failing simultaneously. Three of my four positions had already dropped out of the scan—Micron, SanDisk, and Ciena were gone. I could only exit the two still remaining (AXTI was up 12.33% but volatile, nLight was down 1.87%). The protective puts I had bought with the premium from selling calls and puts saved me from taking full losses on the positions that dropped.

Twelve decisions. Twelve correct calls. Not one based on gut feeling or hope. Every single one based on clear, predetermined rules.

What Most Traders Got Wrong

Let me tell you what I saw other traders doing during this period—and why they got crushed:

Mistake #1: Trading on Headlines

Everyone was watching the news about Iran, trying to predict whether the war would escalate or de-escalate. Some traders were buying defense stocks. Others were shorting oil. Some were buying tech as a “safe haven.” I ignored all of it. I watched my universe size and sector breadth. That’s it.

Mistake #2: No Exit Plan

On Tuesday March 10, when I entered my test positions, I told myself exactly what would trigger an exit: universe contraction OR sectors turning negative. When Thursday hit and both happened, I didn’t hesitate. I didn’t hope. I didn’t pray for a recovery. I executed my plan. Most traders entered positions that week and just hoped the market would go up. When it collapsed Thursday, they held through the pain or sold at the bottom.

Mistake #3: No Protection

Here’s where my Protected Wheel strategy really shined. Yes, I gave up some potential upside by selling calls. Yes, I took on assignment risk by selling puts. But the premium I collected from selling those calls and puts paid for my protective puts—and then some. I was getting paid $0.20 per share per week to be protected.

On Thursday March 12, when stocks in my universe were down 4-6%, my protective puts limited my losses to 2-3%. On Wednesday March 18, three of my four positions dropped out of the scan before I could exit them. Without protective puts, I would have been stuck holding collapsing positions. The puts protected me. And I had paid for them with premium collected from selling calls and puts.

Most traders would say, “Why take on all that complexity? Why sell puts and risk assignment?” Because over dozens of trades, the math is overwhelming. I collect more premium than I spend on protection, AND I’m protected against catastrophic losses. That’s the entire game.

The Real Secret: Being Out More Than In

Here’s what most people miss when they look at a “12 for 12” track record: Seven of those twelve decisions were to STAY OUT or GET OUT.

Let me break it down:

• Stayed out: 2 times (Monday 3/9, Friday 3/13)
• Exited: 2 times (Thursday 3/12, Wednesday 3/18)
• Entered/tested: 2 times (Tuesday 3/10, Monday 3/16)
• Scaled up: 1 time (Wednesday 3/11)

I was out of the market on Track 2—sitting in cash, running only my Track 1 Protected Wheel income strategy—for 7 out of 10 trading days. That’s 70% of the time. And that’s exactly why the strategy works.

Why This Matters for Your Trading

Look, I know what you’re thinking: “This guy just got lucky during a volatile period.” Maybe. But here’s what I actually proved:

1. Rules beat emotions

I entered when my universe hit 15+ stocks with 70%+ green and positive sectors. I exited when the universe collapsed OR sectors turned negative. No exceptions. No “this time is different.” No hope. Just rules.

2. Conservative position sizing protects you

I never went full-sized (50-75%) unless I had 20+ stocks in my universe. When I only had 14-15 stocks, I tested with 25-33%. Both times I tested small, the universe collapsed shortly after. If I had gone full-sized, I would have taken much larger losses.

3. The Protected Wheel structure works

Selling calls and puts to pay for protective puts isn’t just smart—it’s essential. On both exits (Thursday 3/12 and Wednesday 3/18), the protective puts cut my losses by 40-50%. And I had paid for those puts with the premium I collected. Over dozens of trades, this difference compounds enormously.

4. Most of trading is waiting

I was out of the market 70% of the time. That’s not lazy. That’s disciplined. The best opportunities are rare. When they appear, you go hard. When they don’t, you sit on your hands and keep running your Track 1 income engine.

The Bigger Picture: Two Tracks, One Goal

While I was making these 12 decisions on Track 2 (the FinViz momentum system), my Track 1 Protected Wheel portfolio kept grinding away. Every single week during this chaos—war breaking out, markets collapsing, VIX spiking—I sold covered calls and sold cash-secured puts on my Verizon, Pfizer, Par Pharma, and Western Digital LEAPS positions, and used that premium to buy protective puts.

That strategy generated $8,000-$12,000 per month regardless of what was happening in the world. It didn’t care about Iran. It didn’t care about the market direction. It just ground out consistent income week after week.

That’s the real insight: You need a base income strategy that works in all conditions (Track 1), and you layer on a tactical strategy that exploits specific opportunities when they appear (Track 2). Most traders try to make one strategy do both jobs. It doesn’t work.

What’s Next

I’m continuing to document this Track 2 methodology in real-time. Every morning, I publish a market commentary analyzing my FinViz scan, universe size, sector breadth, and mega-cap participation. These commentaries are becoming the foundation for my upcoming book series, “The Protected Edge.”

Right now, I’m running Track 2 in simulation only—I don’t have the $200-300K needed to properly execute it with real money alongside my Track 1 core portfolio. But I’m building an auditable, time-stamped track record of every entry and exit decision. When I do scale up, I’ll have documented proof that the methodology works.

As of today (March 19, 2026), my universe is still stuck at 10 stocks. I’m sitting in cash on Track 2, waiting for the next expansion to 15-20+ stocks with positive sector breadth. I’m not hoping. I’m not guessing. I’m waiting for my signal. Meanwhile, Track 1 keeps grinding—another $0.20 per share per week, every week, protected.

That’s trading. Not gambling. Not hoping. Trading.

Timothy McCandless is a retired California attorney and active options trader. He writes The Hedge, a financial blog focused on brutal honesty over hype, and is currently working on “The Protected Edge,” a seven-book series on protected collar trading strategies. He also wrote “Be Sure Your Money Outlives You,” documenting his Protected Wheel income methodology.

Follow The Hedge at timothymccandless.wordpress.com

IMPORTANT LEGAL DISCLAIMER

This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. Nothing in this article constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.

The author is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. Trading stocks, options, and other securities involves risk and may result in substantial losses. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The “12 for 12” track record described in this article represents simulated trading results for Track 2 positions only, not actual executed trades with real money. Simulated results do not represent actual trading and may not reflect the impact of material economic and market factors.

Options trading specifically involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Selling uncovered (naked) options carries unlimited risk. Even covered options strategies can result in significant losses. The “Protected Wheel” strategy described involves selling cash-secured puts, which obligates you to purchase stock at the strike price if assigned, potentially resulting in significant capital requirements and losses if the underlying security declines substantially.

Before trading options or implementing any strategy described in this article, you should carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and level of experience. You should consult with a licensed financial advisor, tax professional, or investment professional before making any investment decisions.

The author may hold positions in securities mentioned in this article. All content is the author’s opinion and does not constitute professional financial advice. The author assumes no responsibility for any financial losses or damages incurred as a result of using information from this article.

By reading this article, you acknowledge that you understand and accept these risks and disclaimers, and that you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.