The tungsten shortage threatening the American defense industry is one of the least publicized and most operationally significant supply chain vulnerabilities in the US military arsenal — and China’s 80% share of global tungsten production makes it a lever that Beijing has already demonstrated willingness to pull.
Tungsten is the hardest naturally occurring metal, with the highest melting point of any element. These properties make it irreplaceable in armor-piercing munitions — the kinetic penetrators used in anti-tank rounds, artillery shells, and certain missile warheads. It is also essential in cutting tools for precision machining of aerospace components, in the filaments and electrodes of high-temperature industrial equipment, and in the cemented carbide tooling that makes modern manufacturing possible.
There is no substitute for tungsten in armor-piercing applications that matches its density and hardness profile. Depleted uranium performs comparably in penetrator applications but carries radiological concerns that limit its use. No civilian material matches tungsten’s combination of properties for high-temperature industrial applications. When tungsten supply is restricted, these applications are restricted with it.
China produces approximately 80% of global tungsten supply and holds an even larger share of processing capacity. The historical precedent for using this leverage is established — China has used rare earth export restrictions against Japan and gallium restrictions against Western semiconductor manufacturers. Tungsten restrictions against Western defense manufacturers are a tool that exists, has been threatened, and could be deployed in any sufficiently serious geopolitical confrontation.
Craig Tindale’s systematic mapping of Chinese critical mineral control in his Financial Sense interview includes tungsten as one of the most acute near-term vulnerabilities. Rebuilding alternative tungsten supply — from deposits in Portugal, Austria, Canada, and Vietnam — requires years of permitting and capital investment. The window between when restrictions could be imposed and when alternative supply becomes available is dangerously wide.
The Hedge 