WHAT WE STAND FOR Brutal Honesty Over Hype: Institutional Flow Analysis for Systematic Income Trading Every morning at 6:40 AM PST, we analyze real-time institutional flow through a systematic FinViz scan methodology. This isn't about guru alerts or inflated premium yields—this is about identifying when institutions are accumulating or distributing, and making disciplined trading decisions based on evidence, not hope. Real-Time Institutional Flow Signals for Protected Options Income – No YouTube Guru BS We call out the lies: No "50% monthly returns on premium." No "90% win rates." We calculate returns on TOTAL CAPITAL DEPLOYED, not misleading premium percentages. We trade the Protected Wheel strategy because capital preservation matters more than home runs. And most importantly, we tell you when NOT to trade—because sitting out is often the best trade. Tracking The Great Rotation of 2026: Morning Institutional Flow + Protected Wheel Strategy The market is shifting: Magnificent 7 tech dominance → Value/Small Caps/Industrials/Russell 2000 leadership. We're tracking this rotation in real-time through daily sector concentration analysis, Treasury yields, VIX patterns, and institutional 13F filings. Your morning scan will see the rotation before the pundits talk about it. 6:40 AM FinViz Scan Methodology: Catch Institutional Moves Before Market Open Our edge is simple: A systematic pre-market scan that identifies sector concentration and accumulation/distribution patterns. Four requirements for entry: (1) 40%+ sector concentration, (2) <20% RED distribution, (3) Clean momentum, (4) Low volatility. If these aren't met, NO TRADES. Discipline beats gambling every time
In this weekly market update, John Paul discusses various market trends and financial insights, focusing on the current state of investment sectors like technology, energy, and commodities, alongside a detailed look at the geopolitical landscape. He underscores the importance of personal research in investment decisions and introduces his various informational products aimed at helping subscribers navigate the market.
Paul begins with a disclaimer, asserting that nothing discussed should be considered investment advice, emphasizing the importance of individual due diligence. Throughout the podcast, he touches upon the fundamental concept of market rotation, particularly from overvalued sectors dominated by large tech stocks into undervalued sectors like energy and emerging markets.
He refers to significant market data, such as the current levels of concentration in the S&P 500, where the top 10 stocks now represent about 40% of the index, indicating a potential market correction. The speaker expresses concerns over the implications of such a concentration, drawing comparisons to previous market bubbles like the Nifty Fifty and the tech bubble in 2000, suggesting that a significant unwinding may occur.
Highlights
Market Concentration:
The top 10 S&P stocks now constitute nearly 40% of the market cap.
Historically high levels of market concentration often precede bear markets.
Capital is expected to rotate from overvalued tech stocks into undervalued sectors like energy and emerging markets.
Sector Performance:
Energy sectors are starting to outperform after prolonged undervaluation.
Emerging markets, particularly China, have seen robust gains year to date, raising questions about a sustained bull market.
Oil Prices and Energy Investments:
The speaker predicts a rise in oil prices due to low inventory levels and seasonal demand increases.
Despite negative sentiment towards the energy sector, he identifies potential value in oil equities and long-life reserves.
Geopolitical Considerations:
There is a growing concern regarding reliance on Chinese resources and the implications for U.S. strategic interests.
The U.S. government’s push to increase domestic mining of critical minerals could potentially stabilize supply chains and enhance national security.
Market Sentiment:
The podcast highlights a bullish sentiment towards gold, with current prices breaking above $3,000, even while market interest appears low.
Discussions around the political landscape and its impact on economic stability are woven throughout the conversation.
Key Insights
The cyclical nature of markets necessitates a careful approach to asset allocation, particularly in times of peak concentration and valuation.
The rotation from tech to energy and other undervalued sectors may indicate a sustained trend rather than a fleeting moment, historically supported by market behavior following similar bubbles.
There is significant noise around the market which can lead to potential misjudgments, especially when political dynamics intertwine with financial outcomes.
Core Concepts
Market Rotation:
Market rotation refers to the movement of capital from one sector to another, often driven by shifts in investor sentiment and economic conditions.
Concentration Risk:
High concentration risk occurs when a small number of assets dominate a portfolio or index, leading to increased vulnerability during downturns.
Death Cross:
A technical analysis pattern indicating a bearish trend when a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average.
Value vs Growth Investing:
The ongoing debate between investing in high-growth tech stocks versus undervalued sectors like energy, suggesting strategic diversifications are essential for potential recovery in portfolios.
Keywords
S&P 500
Market Concentration
Energy Sector
Oil Prices
Gold
Commodity Investments
Emerging Markets
Investment Rotation
Political Landscape
Legal Implications and Concerns
Investment Advice Regulations:
The podcast clearly states that the information provided should not be construed as financial advice. This legal disclaimer is critical for both protecting the commentator from liability and informing viewers that they are responsible for their investment choices.
Market Manipulation Risks:
In discussions about market rotation and sector performance, there’s an underlying caution regarding potential manipulation or misrepresentation of performance metrics by firms. Scrutinizing claims about market dynamics from a legal perspective is essential, especially with regulatory bodies like the SEC overseeing such communications.
Trade and Investment in Foreign Markets:
The speaker touches upon investment in foreign equities. It is important to consider the implications of international trade agreements, tariffs, and foreign investment regulations, which can substantially affect investment returns.
Licensing and Regulatory Concerns:
Given the emphasis on financial products and subscriptions mentioned, there are legal considerations regarding financial licensing and the adequacy of disclaimers to comply with securities regulations. The speaker needs to ensure that promotional efforts abide by relevant laws.
In conclusion, John Paul offers a wealth of insights that, while centered on market trends and personal investment philosophies, also intertwine with pertinent legal considerations in investment communications. Understanding these various elements can help investors navigate the complex landscape of modern finance.
Investing in the stock market can be both rewarding and risky. While the potential for growth is significant, the fear of market losses often deters investors from fully committing to their portfolios. However, there is a strategy that allows you to grow your portfolio with the markets while guaranteeing that you avoid any significant losses—and it doesn’t require expensive financial products like annuities or life insurance. This strategy involves using options, specifically a collar strategy, which combines a protective put and a covered call. Let’s break it down.
What is a Collar Strategy?
A collar strategy is an options trading strategy that involves three key components:
Long Exposure (Owning Stocks or ETFs): This means you own shares of a stock or an ETF, such as the S&P 500 (SPY), NASDAQ 100 (QQQ), or Russell 2000 (IWM). For simplicity, this strategy works best with indexed ETFs.
Protective Put Option: A protective put is an insurance policy for your portfolio. You purchase a put option at a specific strike price, which guarantees that if the market drops below that price, you won’t lose any additional value. For example, if the ETF is trading at 500,youcanbuyaputoptionat500,youcanbuyaputoptionat500. If the price falls below $500, the put option will offset your losses.
Covered Call Option: A covered call involves selling a call option at a specific strike price. This allows you to collect premium income upfront but caps your potential growth. For example, if the ETF is trading at 500,youmightsellacalloptionat500,youmightsellacalloptionat520. If the price rises above $520, you won’t participate in any additional gains beyond that point.
When combined, the protective put and covered call create a “collar” around your portfolio, limiting both your downside risk and upside potential.
How Does the Collar Strategy Work?
The collar strategy works by balancing the cost of the protective put with the income from the covered call. Ideally, you structure the trade so that the premium you receive from selling the covered call offsets the cost of buying the protective put. This means the strategy can be implemented at little to no net cost.
Here’s a step-by-step breakdown:
Buy Shares of an ETF: For example, let’s say you buy 100 shares of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at $610 per share.
Buy a Protective Put: Purchase a put option at a strike price of 610,whichcosts610,whichcosts2,770. This ensures that if the market drops below $610, your losses are capped.
Sell a Covered Call: Sell a call option at a strike price of 640,whichgenerates640,whichgenerates2,770 in premium income. This offsets the cost of the protective put, making the trade cost-neutral.
Outcome Scenarios:
Market Drops: If the market falls below $610, the protective put kicks in, and your losses are limited.
Market Rises: If the market rises, you participate in growth up to 640.Anygainsbeyond640.Anygainsbeyond640 are capped.
Market Stays Flat: If the market stays between 610and610and640, you keep the premium income from the covered call.
Historical Example: S&P 500 (2021-2022)
Let’s look at a real-world example to see how this strategy works in practice. In December 2021, the S&P 500 (SPY) was trading at 477.18.Ifyouhadpurchasedaprotectiveputat477.18.Ifyouhadpurchasedaprotectiveputat475, it would have cost 3,695.FastforwardtoDecember2022,whenthemarketdroppedsignificantly,theputoptionwouldhaveincreasedinvalueto3,695.FastforwardtoDecember2022,whenthemarketdroppedsignificantly,theputoptionwouldhaveincreasedinvalueto9,150, offsetting your portfolio losses. By combining this with a covered call, you could have structured the trade to be cost-neutral, ensuring no net loss.
Real-Life Examples in 2025
Let’s explore how you can implement this strategy today using the S&P 500 (SPY) and NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) as examples.
Example 1: S&P 500 (SPY)
Current Price: $610
Protective Put (610 Strike): Costs $2,770
Covered Call (640 Strike): Generates $2,770
Net Cost: $0
Growth Cap: 4.92% (from 610to610to640)
Example 2: NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
Current Price: $538
Protective Put (538 Strike): Costs $3,240
Covered Call (569 Strike): Generates $3,245
Net Cost: $5 (credit)
Growth Cap: 5.76% (from 538to538to569)
Adjusting for Risk Tolerance
If you’re comfortable with a 5% loss, you can lower the strike price of your protective put, which reduces its cost and allows you to set a higher growth cap. For example:
S&P 500 (SPY):
Protective Put (580 Strike): Costs $1,977
Covered Call (655 Strike): Generates $1,920
Net Cost: $57
Growth Cap: 7.38% (from 610to610to655)
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ):
Protective Put (511 Strike): Costs $2,375
Covered Call (590 Strike): Generates $2,300
Net Cost: $75
Growth Cap: 9.66% (from 538to538to590)
Pros and Cons of the Collar Strategy
Pros:
Downside Protection: Guarantees you won’t lose money beyond a certain point.
Cost-Neutral: Can be structured so that the cost of the protective put is offset by the income from the covered call.
Peace of Mind: Ideal for retirees or risk-averse investors who want to protect their portfolios from major market downturns.
Cons:
Capped Growth: Limits your upside potential, which may not be ideal for younger investors in the accumulation phase.
Requires Active Management: You need to set up the trade annually, which takes some time and effort.
Who Should Use This Strategy?
The collar strategy is best suited for:
Retirees or Near-Retirees: Those who want to protect their portfolios from significant losses while still participating in moderate market growth.
Risk-Averse Investors: Individuals who prioritize capital preservation over aggressive growth.
Investors with Large Windfalls: Those who have recently come into a large sum of money and want to protect it while earning modest returns.
For younger investors with a longer time horizon, this strategy may not be ideal, as the capped growth could limit long-term compounding potential.
Final Thoughts
The collar strategy is a powerful tool for investors who want to grow their portfolios while avoiding significant market losses. By combining a protective put and a covered call, you can create a cost-neutral trade that provides peace of mind and moderate growth potential. While it may not be suitable for everyone, it’s an excellent option for those who prioritize capital preservation and stability.
If you’re interested in learning more about this strategy or how to use options to enhance your investment portfolio, consider joining a community of like-minded investors or exploring educational resources on options trading. Happy investing!
if we used tis statagy for the last ten years what would our returns be
To estimate the returns of the collar strategy over the last 10 years, we need to analyze how this strategy would have performed in different market conditions. The collar strategy involves:
Owning the underlying asset (e.g., an S&P 500 ETF like SPY).
Buying a protective put to limit downside risk.
Selling a covered call to generate income and offset the cost of the put.
The returns of this strategy depend on:
The performance of the underlying asset (e.g., SPY).
The cost of the protective put.
The income from the covered call.
The frequency of rebalancing (e.g., annually).
Let’s break this down step by step.
Step 1: Historical Market Performance (2013–2023)
The S&P 500 (SPY) has experienced significant growth over the last decade, with some notable downturns (e.g., COVID-19 crash in 2020). Here’s a rough breakdown of annual returns for SPY:
Year
SPY Return
2013
+29.6%
2014
+11.4%
2015
-0.7%
2016
+9.5%
2017
+19.4%
2018
-6.2%
2019
+28.9%
2020
+16.3%
2021
+26.9%
2022
-19.4%
2023
+24.2%
Cumulative Return (2013–2023): If you had simply held SPY, your cumulative return would have been approximately +250% (without dividends).
Step 2: Collar Strategy Assumptions
To estimate the collar strategy’s returns, we’ll make the following assumptions:
Protective Put: Purchased annually at 5% below the current price (e.g., if SPY is at 400,theputstrikeis400,theputstrikeis380).
Covered Call: Sold annually at 5% above the current price (e.g., if SPY is at 400,thecallstrikeis400,thecallstrikeis420).
Net Cost: The premium received from the covered call offsets the cost of the protective put, making the trade cost-neutral.
Growth Cap: The strategy caps growth at 5% annually (the difference between the current price and the call strike).
Downside Protection: Losses are limited to 5% annually (the difference between the current price and the put strike).
Step 3: Simulating the Collar Strategy (2013–2023)
Let’s simulate the collar strategy year by year:
Year
SPY Return
Collar Strategy Return (Capped at 5%)
Notes
2013
+29.6%
+5%
Capped at 5% due to covered call.
2014
+11.4%
+5%
Capped at 5%.
2015
-0.7%
-0.7%
No loss protection needed (market didn’t drop 5%).
2016
+9.5%
+5%
Capped at 5%.
2017
+19.4%
+5%
Capped at 5%.
2018
-6.2%
-5%
Losses limited to 5% due to protective put.
2019
+28.9%
+5%
Capped at 5%.
2020
+16.3%
+5%
Capped at 5%.
2021
+26.9%
+5%
Capped at 5%.
2022
-19.4%
-5%
Losses limited to 5% due to protective put.
2023
+24.2%
+5%
Capped at 5%.
Step 4: Cumulative Returns
Using the collar strategy, your annual returns would have been capped at +5% in up years and limited to -5% in down years. Here’s the cumulative return calculation:
Cumulative Return (2013–2023): Using compound annual growth rate (CAGR) formula:CAGR=(∏i=1n(1+ri))1n−1CAGR=(i=1∏n(1+ri))n1−1Where riri is the annual return.Plugging in the numbers:CAGR=((1.05)9×(0.993)×(0.95)2)111−1≈2.5%CAGR=((1.05)9×(0.993)×(0.95)2)111−1≈2.5%Cumulative Return: Approximately +31% over 10 years.
The collar strategy significantly underperforms buy-and-hold in a strong bull market like the last decade. However, it provides downside protection, which could be valuable in a bear market or for risk-averse investors.
Key Takeaways
Collar Strategy in Bull Markets: The collar strategy underperforms buy-and-hold in strong bull markets because it caps your upside potential. Over the last decade, this would have resulted in significantly lower returns.
Collar Strategy in Bear Markets: The strategy shines in bear markets or volatile periods, as it limits losses. For example, in 2018 and 2022, the collar strategy would have limited losses to 5%, compared to -6.2% and -19.4% for buy-and-hold.
Ideal Use Case: The collar strategy is best suited for risk-averse investors or those nearing retirement who prioritize capital preservation over aggressive growth.
Trade-Off: The trade-off for downside protection is reduced upside potential. Over the long term, this can significantly impact compounded returns.
Final Thoughts
If you had used the collar strategy over the last 10 years, your returns would have been much lower than simply holding the S&P 500. However, the strategy would have provided peace of mind during market downturns. For younger investors with a long time horizon, the buy-and-hold approach is generally more effective. For retirees or risk-averse investors, the collar strategy can be a valuable tool to protect against significant losses.
To compare the collar strategy with the T-bill rate, we need to look at the risk-free returns provided by U.S. Treasury bills (T-bills) over the same period (2013–2023). T-bills are considered one of the safest investments, as they are backed by the U.S. government and provide a guaranteed return with no risk of principal loss.
Step 1: Historical T-Bill Rates (2013–2023)
The T-bill rate fluctuates over time based on Federal Reserve policy and economic conditions. Here are the average annual T-bill rates (3-month) for each year:
Year
Average 3-Month T-Bill Rate
2013
0.07%
2014
0.05%
2015
0.10%
2016
0.36%
2017
1.01%
2018
2.00%
2019
2.15%
2020
0.38%
2021
0.05%
2022
1.56%
2023
4.50%
Step 2: Cumulative T-Bill Returns (2013–2023)
To calculate the cumulative return of T-bills over the 10-year period, we’ll assume that the returns are reinvested annually. The formula for cumulative return is:Cumulative Return=∏i=1n(1+ri)−1Cumulative Return=i=1∏n(1+ri)−1
Where riri is the annual T-bill rate.
Plugging in the numbers:Cumulative Return=(1.0007)×(1.0005)×(1.0010)×(1.0036)×(1.0101)×(1.0200)×(1.0215)×(1.0038)×(1.0005)×(1.0156)×(1.0450)−1Cumulative Return=(1.0007)×(1.0005)×(1.0010)×(1.0036)×(1.0101)×(1.0200)×(1.0215)×(1.0038)×(1.0005)×(1.0156)×(1.0450)−1
Calculating step by step:Cumulative Return≈1.123−1=12.3%Cumulative Return≈1.123−1=12.3%
So, the cumulative return for T-bills from 2013–2023 is approximately +12.3%.
Step 3: Comparison with Collar Strategy
From the previous analysis, the collar strategy provided a cumulative return of approximately +31% over the same period (2013–2023). Here’s how the two compare:
Strategy
Cumulative Return (2013–2023)
Risk Level
Collar Strategy
+31%
Moderate (limited downside)
T-Bills
+12.3%
Risk-free (no downside risk)
Step 4: Key Takeaways
Collar Strategy vs. T-Bills:
The collar strategy outperformed T-bills over the last decade, providing +31% vs. +12.3%.
However, the collar strategy involves market risk (albeit limited), while T-bills are risk-free.
Risk-Adjusted Returns:
The collar strategy is a better option for investors willing to take on some risk in exchange for higher returns.
T-bills are ideal for ultra-conservative investors who prioritize capital preservation over growth.
Inflation Consideration:
Over the last decade, inflation averaged around 2% annually.
T-bills barely kept pace with inflation, while the collar strategy provided real (inflation-adjusted) returns.
Market Conditions Matter:
In a strong bull market (like 2013–2023), the collar strategy underperforms buy-and-hold but still beats T-bills.
In a bear market or volatile period, the collar strategy’s downside protection would make it even more attractive compared to T-bills.
Final Thoughts
If you’re a risk-averse investor who wants to avoid market volatility entirely, T-bills are a safe choice, but they provide minimal returns that barely outpace inflation.
If you’re willing to accept some market risk in exchange for higher returns, the collar strategy is a better option, as it provides downside protection while still allowing for moderate growth.
Ultimately, the choice depends on your risk tolerance, investment goals, and time horizon. For retirees or conservative investors, a combination of both strategies (e.g., allocating a portion to T-bills and a portion to a collar strategy) might be a balanced approach.
Let’s walk through an example of how a $10,000 investment would have performed over the last 10 years (2013–2023) using:
The Collar Strategy
T-Bills
We’ll compare the final value of the investment under each strategy.
Assumptions
Collar Strategy:
Annual return capped at +5% in up years.
Losses limited to -5% in down years.
Based on the S&P 500 (SPY) performance.
T-Bills:
Annual returns based on historical 3-month T-bill rates.
Returns are reinvested annually.
Initial Investment: $10,000.
Step 1: Collar Strategy Performance
Using the annual returns from the collar strategy (as calculated earlier):
Year
Collar Strategy Return
Investment Value at End of Year
2013
+5%
10,000×1.05=10,000×1.05=10,500
2014
+5%
10,500×1.05=10,500×1.05=11,025
2015
-0.7%
11,025×0.993=11,025×0.993=10,948
2016
+5%
10,948×1.05=10,948×1.05=11,495
2017
+5%
11,495×1.05=11,495×1.05=12,070
2018
-5%
12,070×0.95=12,070×0.95=11,467
2019
+5%
11,467×1.05=11,467×1.05=12,040
2020
+5%
12,040×1.05=12,040×1.05=12,642
2021
+5%
12,642×1.05=12,642×1.05=13,274
2022
-5%
13,274×0.95=13,274×0.95=12,610
2023
+5%
12,610×1.05=12,610×1.05=13,241
Final Value (Collar Strategy): $13,241
Step 2: T-Bill Performance
Using the historical 3-month T-bill rates, we calculate the annual growth of the $10,000 investment:
Year
T-Bill Rate
Investment Value at End of Year
2013
0.07%
10,000×1.0007=10,000×1.0007=10,007
2014
0.05%
10,007×1.0005=10,007×1.0005=10,012
2015
0.10%
10,012×1.0010=10,012×1.0010=10,022
2016
0.36%
10,022×1.0036=10,022×1.0036=10,058
2017
1.01%
10,058×1.0101=10,058×1.0101=10,160
2018
2.00%
10,160×1.0200=10,160×1.0200=10,363
2019
2.15%
10,363×1.0215=10,363×1.0215=10,586
2020
0.38%
10,586×1.0038=10,586×1.0038=10,626
2021
0.05%
10,626×1.0005=10,626×1.0005=10,631
2022
1.56%
10,631×1.0156=10,631×1.0156=10,797
2023
4.50%
10,797×1.0450=10,797×1.0450=11,283
Final Value (T-Bills): $11,283
Step 3: Comparison of Final Values
Strategy
Final Value (2013–2023)
Growth on $10,000
Collar Strategy
$13,241
+32.4%
T-Bills
$11,283
+12.8%
Key Takeaways
Collar Strategy:
A 10,000investmentwouldhavegrownto∗∗10,000investmentwouldhavegrownto∗∗13,241** over 10 years.
This represents a +32.4% return, with limited downside risk.
T-Bills:
A 10,000investmentwouldhavegrownto∗∗10,000investmentwouldhavegrownto∗∗11,283** over 10 years.
This represents a +12.8% return, with no risk of loss.
Difference:
The collar strategy outperformed T-bills by $1,958 over 10 years.
However, the collar strategy involves some market risk, while T-bills are risk-free.
Final Thoughts
If you’re a risk-averse investor who prioritizes safety and is okay with lower returns, T-bills are a good choice.
If you’re willing to accept some market risk in exchange for higher returns, the collar strategy is a better option.
For example:
If you had invested 10,000inthe∗∗collarstrategy∗∗,youwouldhave∗∗10,000inthe∗∗collarstrategy∗∗,youwouldhave∗∗13,241** after 10 years.
If you had invested 10,000in∗∗T−bills∗∗,youwouldhave∗∗10,000in∗∗T−bills∗∗,youwouldhave∗∗11,283** after 10 years.
The choice depends on your risk tolerance and investment goals. A balanced approach (e.g., splitting your investment between the two strategies) could also be a good option for some investors.