The Hedge — Brutal Honesty Over Hype Since 2008
The Pitch
Katie Porter’s affordability platform: free universal childcare, speed housing permits by nearly two years, a down payment assistance bond for first-time buyers, eliminate state income taxes for households under $100,000, and two years of free college tuition.
The Fiscal Math Doesn’t Add Up
California’s personal income tax is the state’s largest single revenue source — roughly $130 billion annually. Eliminating the tax liability for under-$100K earners blows a hole in the budget that funds schools, roads, Medi-Cal, and every other program Porter wants to expand. Porter admits she “cribbed” this idea from Steve Hilton — the Republican in the race. Add free universal childcare, free college, increased housing production, and a down payment bond — Porter is promising to cut the state’s main revenue source and increase spending simultaneously, with no credible offset beyond wealth taxes on earners who are already leaving the state.
The Housing Plan
Her permitting speedup by nearly two years is actually the most credible item on the list. Time is money in construction — carrying costs accumulate monthly. But she hasn’t committed to overriding the local NIMBYism that actually blocks projects.
The Housing Deal She Gets to Live With
Porter campaigns on California’s housing crisis while living in a below-market UC Irvine faculty housing unit she purchased in 2011 for $523,000 — well below market rate in Orange County — through a program restricted to UC employees. She retained the subsidized housing for years after taking unpaid leave from her faculty position to serve in Congress. She didn’t break any rules. But voters are entitled to notice the gap.
The Bottom Line
You cannot cut the income tax for most earners, expand free services, and close the gap with a wealth tax on a population that’s actively voting with its feet.
Rating: The right instincts. The arithmetic is a mess.
— Timothy McCandless | The Hedge | timothymccandless.wordpress.com
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