The Hedge — Brutal Honesty Over Hype Since 2008
The Pitch
Tom Steyer — billionaire, former hedge fund manager, climate activist — wants to build one million homes you can afford in California, partly through surplus public land and prefabricated housing, and wants to return windfall oil company profits directly to residents.
The Problem
In 2018, Gavin Newsom campaigned on building 3.5 million new homes over his two terms. The state is now tracking to fall dramatically short of that goal — despite Newsom signing hundreds of housing bills. The reason Newsom’s promise failed isn’t that he didn’t try. It’s that California’s housing problem is structural, not gubernatorial. Local governments control zoning. CEQA can delay projects for years through litigation that has nothing to do with environmental protection. None of that changes because a new governor has a big number.
Steyer’s surplus public land proposal has been tried, piloted, and under-executed for two decades. The land exists. The political permission to build dense housing on it at scale — fast, without years of environmental review — does not exist in the current regulatory environment.
The Windfall Oil Profits Angle
If California imposes a windfall profits tax on refiners, the refiners have two options: absorb the cost (unlikely) or pass it forward in pump prices. California already has only a handful of refineries configured for California’s unique fuel blend. Any measure that makes refining California fuel less economically attractive reduces that already-thin supply. The likely outcome: higher gas prices with a rebate check that doesn’t fully compensate.
The Bottom Line
Steyer’s platform doesn’t explain why his million homes will materialize when Newsom’s 3.5 million didn’t.
Rating: Familiar fiction with better marketing.
— Timothy McCandless | The Hedge | timothymccandless.wordpress.com
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